The Golden State Valkyries (21-9) are coming off back-to-back double-digit wins over the Toronto Tempo. They got excellent production from Janelle Salaün in those two games, as she dropped 20+ points off the bench in each matchup.
Up next for the Valkyries is an intriguing game against the Dallas Wings (19-12). The Wings will look to get back on track after dropping three of their last four games, including a 96-92 loss to the Washington Mystics on August 5th. Valkyries vs Wings projects to be a close game that comes down to the wire. With that in mind, let’s try to find value at prediction market apps.
This game is as close as it gets, with each team priced at 50 cents. It’s truly a toss-up, so I don’t want to buy into the outcome. Rather, we can look at the game total to try to find value. It’s currently set at Over 165.5 points, with “No” as the favored outcome, priced at 55 cents.
Both the Valkyries (1st) and Wings (5th) are among the top teams in Defensive Rating, so this projects as a low-scoring game. Even though these teams combine for 179.2 points per game, the number is much lower at 165.5 points. That speaks volumes to me: the market is confident that there won’t be many points in this one.
When these teams met on June 17th, the Valkyries won 91-80, so it went over 165.5 at 171 points. However, that was a game where Golden State shot 12-of-25 (48%) from three-point range, which is unsustainable, especially vs. a tough Wings’ defense. For context, the Valkyries shoot 35.3% from beyond the arc for the year, so you can see how that was an outlier result.
I’m going with Over 165.5: No in this game at 55 cents. This is a matchup of two top-5 defensive teams, each of which ranks near the bottom of the league in pace, with the Valkyries at 15th and Wings at 12th. A slow-paced game with two elite defensive teams is a recipe for a low-scoring affair. I’ll ride with the Under here.
The Valkyries are one of the hottest teams in the WNBA, winning eight of their last 10 games.
Valkyries guard Veronica Burton goes up against the team that cut her when they face the Wings in this one, so there’s some added motivation here.
The Wings blew a 20-point lead in their loss against the Mystics on August 5th.
Dallas has allowed 80+ points in three of their last five games, so they haven’t been as good defensively lately.
The Valkyries opened as 53.5% favorites for this game, but the price has moved to 50%. This is likely because the Wings have homecourt advantage in this one. However, the Wings are struggling of late, plus the Valkyries beat them by 11 points in their last matchup. So even though the market has moved towards the Wings, it’s created some value on the Valkyries.
Loading …
