Tom Steyer has dropped from 63.4% chance to 30%, following a major shift in momentum
Xavier Becerra is the new frontrunner, with Kalshi markets placing him with a 50% chance
You can track the fluctuations and changes in real-time on Kalshi by clicking the on-page links
The California Governor’s race is on, and while Tom Steyer was previously leading the way, the race has reshaped. Just a few weeks ago, prediction markets gave Xavier Becerra a slight chance of winning, while Steyer had a strong chance.
As we head to the back end of May, there has been a new wave of polls and a major shift in the market. Market traders on Kalshi have shifted more towards Becerra winning the Governor race in November, with him emerging as the new favorite. Coming up, we take a closer look at why this sudden change has happened.
Back on April 14th, Tom Steyer was leading on prediction markets. Market traders on Kalshi placed Steyer with a 63.4% chance, while Xavier Becerra was sitting at the bottom with 6.2%. Fast forward to May 18th, and Becerra has a 50% chance, with Steyer falling behind with 30%. So, what happened to cause this ‘sudden’ change? Well, it wasn’t over one event. Several developments occurred between April and May that reshaped traders’ beliefs, which we will take a closer look at below:
On April 12th, Eric Swalwell officially announced that he is withdrawing from the California Governor’s race. This came after sexual misconduct allegations were surfacing, causing him growing pressure to drop out. Multiple polls and reports noted that Xavier Becerra has benefited from Swalwell’s withdrawal, as his support had to go somewhere. With one candidate less to support, Kalshi’s traders and voters started looking elsewhere for a new candidate to back.
Around the middle of May, multiple polls started showing Xavier Becerra as leading or being tied in first place. For example, a poll published by Kreate Strategies put Becerra second with 20% of the vote. Another poll by Impact Research found Steve Hilton and Becerra tied with 23%. While these might not sound like huge percentages, it was enough to get people asking, “Is Xavier Becerra likely to win?” After these polls were released, voters started framing Becerra as a potential winner, so naturally, there was also a change in how event contracts were being traded.
With Xavier Becerra often ranking high or tied with another candidate, traders started thinking about electability to frame someone as the frontrunner. This benefited Becerra because he was being shown positively in polls, on Reddit posts, and in general market chat. With polls favoring Becerra, voters started thinking of him positively. In turn, more positive chatter about Becerra has led to a firmer belief on prediction markets.
While Tom Steyer was the frontrunner for a while, he has recently lost momentum, and the tide has turned. With new polls emerging and Xavier Becerra outperforming Steyer, his position weakened on prediction markets. However, he’s still sitting in second place on Kalshi, so he is certainly not out of the running yet. As we have seen, major shifts can happen overnight, but these are not permanent.
Inspired by the current shift to start trading on the next California Governor? Here’s how you can get involved on Kalshi, based on the current contract prices:
| California Governor Candidate | Chance | Yes Contract | No Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | 50% | 51¢ | 50¢ |
| Tom Steyer | 30% | 31¢ | 70¢ |
| Steve Hilton | 10% | 10¢ | 90.5¢ |
At the time of writing, Xavier Becerra is the frontrunner with a 50% chance of winning the California Governor race, as determined by Kalshi traders. It’s worth noting that while a shift from 6.2% to 50% is huge, it can also be a mark of uncertainty. Prediction markets can overshoot during major changes, so another shift may be on the cards. Prediction markets aggregate polls, effects from dropouts, debate performances, and more. So, while Kalshi traders are currently backing Becerra to win, this could still change between now and November.
If you want to watch this market fluctuate in real-time on Kalshi, all you need to do is tap the promotional banners on this page. If you decide to purchase an event contract, the best part is that you don’t need to wait until November for the official winner. If the tide turns once again, you can sell your contract early. With this in mind, it’s worth tracking the latest news, debates, and polls to stay on top of the current trends.
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