Following the dismissal of Liam Rosenior, Chelsea Football Club has yet to announce a new manager. The beleaguered Blues have only managed one win out of their last nine games and are currently eighth in the Premier League table.
Various names have been proposed as the new Chelsea boss, including former player Cesc Fà bregas, former manager Enzo Maresca and Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola. This market has shifted considerably at Kalshi, with a definitive result still too early to call. As Chelsea heads into the final few weeks of the season, let’s take a closer look at all potential candidates.
Liam Rosenior managed to see out only 102 days of his six-year contract as Chelsea manager, but, following a series of defeats, was asked to leave on April 22nd. The final straw was a 3-0 defeat against Brighton & Hove Albion, marking the Blues’ fifth game since they managed to score a league goal, a streak unequalled since 1912.
Former Chelsea player Cesc FÃ bregas had emerged as one of the frontrunners for the Blues head job, but has seen major fluctuations in his chances, between 88% and under 10% in the past few days. Several other names have also emerged as possible managers, including Andoni Iraola, Filipe Luis, Enzo Maresca and Xabi Alonso.
This market at Kalshi has seen some major movements in the past few hours as speculation flies around possible appointments. Let’s take a closer look at the top names:
The former Spain international spent five years as a player at Chelsea, during which time he helped the Blues achieve the Premier League title twice. He then became manager of Italian side Como and steered them to Serie A promotion. Fabregas hasn’t confirmed or denied the rumors, only stating that he wants to focus on the remainder of the season at Como.
Former Leicester City manager Enzo Maresca was the Chelsea manager between July 2024 and January 2026. In the 2024 season, Maresca led Chelsea to a fourth-place finish in the Premier League, the first time that Chelsea had qualified for the UEFA Champions League since 2021-22. The following year, he also guided Chelsea to win the UEFA Conference League and the FIFA Club World Cup.
The former Spanish international departed his role as Real Madrid manager in January 2026. This was reportedly a mutual decision between Alonso and Los Blancos following a conflict with player Vinicius Júnior.
Andoni Iraola is currently the Bournemouth manager but has confirmed that he will leave the team at the end of the season. His numbers have remained pretty steady since this market opened, at around 25%-35%, but we’ve yet to see any firm movements. Another former Chelsea player, Filipe Luis has recently ended his contract with Spanish side Flamengo and is also a possibility for the manager job.
If there’s one conclusion we can draw from this market’s movement at Kalshi, it’s that you should expect the unexpected. There have been major shifts in points for the top nominees, including major dips in a period of 24 hours for the projected front-runners. Here’s how the numbers are shaping up:
Maresca stepped down from his Chelsea role in 2026, following disagreements with the owners. However, he’s since emerged as a possible contender for. His numbers have reached as high as 85% at Kalshi but have since dropped considerably. This comes after news that Maresca is reportedly in talks with Manchester City for next season.
After strong market growth, Fà bregas’ chances of bagging the Chelsea job took a hit on Tuesday. This could be a result of his statement that he would remain at Como for now, or it could be a reaction to the growth in Maresca’s chances.
The majority of the candidates Chelsea seem to be considering are under contract for the remainder of the Premier League season, which ends on the 24th May. It seems unlikely, therefore, that a new manager will be appointed before this time.
In the past five years, Chelsea has run through nine managers. The longest lasting of these were Thomas Tuchel and Enzo Maresca, who both stayed in post for more than 500 days. Other managers only stayed for a few months, so it’s difficult to draw conclusions about Chelsea’s selection criteria. It’s been suggested that part of Rosenior’s managerial difficulties were caused by his not being able to win over the fan base, so a former player could be a more popular choice.
Kalshi is a popular prediction exchange brand with a big focus on sports markets. Here’s how you can buy contracts on this market ahead of the official Chelsea manager announcement:
Have a look at the table below for the current trading prices and implied probabilities of the main contenders for this market at Kalshi:
| Name | Implied probability | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cesc Fabregas | 11% | $0.11 | $0.95 |
| Andoni Iraola | 27% | $0.34 | $0.73 |
| Xabi Alonso | 85% | $0.45 | $0.64 |
Be aware that the prices are correct at the time of writing, but are subject to variation as the market shifts.
Chelsea have been through one of their worst Premier League seasons in recent memory this year and have been running through managers at a pace. So, with only a few weeks left in the season, we can expect Chelsea to take some time to consider their options before appointing a manager.
At the moment, this market is highly volatile at Kalshi, with several names fluctuating between +80% and -10%. We’d recommend spending a bit of time studying the market before you purchase your contract. Then, when you’re ready, tap on the links on this page to go to Kalshi.
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