Will Carrick become permanent Manchester United manager?
Another loss could be enough to seal Carrick’s fate
Iraola, Glanser, and Emery all in contention
With the end of the season fast approaching, the race to become the next Manchester United manager is already beginning to take shape. Carrick has done a great job of bringing joy back to the stands of Old Trafford, but is it enough to cement his position as a permanent fixture? With a little help from Kalshi, we break down how things could play out.
Although still considered European giants, Manchester United have fallen short of the mark for two seasons straight. An eighth-place finish in the 23/24 season and a fifteenth-place finish last season have raised questions about the players brought in, the mood in camp, and the underlying reasons why top managerial talent has been unable to bring Old Trafford back to life.
Bar Van Nistelrooy’s short stint as interim manager, the decline of Manchester United seems to fall heavily on the shoulders of Ten Hag and Amorim. In the 23/24 season, Ten Hag averaged a 47% win rate and just 1.6 points per game. This averages around 60.8 points, compared with an average of 87 for league winners. In 2024, Ten Hag got off to an even slower start, averaging just 1.2 points per game. This led to his eventual release, a brief interim spell for Van Nistelrooy, and the later appointment of Amorim.
Unfortunately for Manchester United, Amorim’s appointment left much to be desired, averaging just 1 point per game for the remainder of the season. These poor performances continued into 25/26 (1.6 points per average) before Carrick was appointed as interim.
Since then, things have looked up for United, who now find themselves in third place – albeit on goal difference. Carrick is averaging 2.1 points per game; players seem to finally be gelling, and the mood in the stands is positive. However, questions still hang over Carrick and whether this form can continue, especially after a recent loss to Leeds United.
With Champions League football just a few points away from being confirmed, thoughts on whether Michael Carrick is the right man for the job are being aired. A United legend in his own right, gaining control of the changing room was never going to be much trouble, but is this latest string of results based on name alone, or does he truly have the acumen to bring Manchester United back into serious European contention? As you will see, prediction market apps, like Kalshi, have a couple of other big names in the mix.
| Potential manager | Probability | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carrick | 54% | $0.58 | $0.46 |
| Andoni Iraola | 12% | $0.12 | $0.94 |
| Oliver Glasner | 11% | $0.16 | $0.94 |
As things stand, Carrick has won seven, drawn two, and lost two in the league, taking Manchester United into third place, and most importantly, into the Champions League spots. Aston Villa sits closely behind in 4th place on the same number of points, and Liverpool is just 3 points behind. Beyond, we have Chelsea, who are seven points adrift.
With the addition of the fifth Champions League space for English teams, we suggest that Champions League football is all but guaranteed for United next year. This achievement, a clear understanding of the culture, and Carrick’s own status within the club will bode well, but sentiment alone won’t seal the deal. In truth, another loss similar to that against Leeds on Monday could be enough to sway the direction of things.
Next in the race is Andoni Iraola. After a fantastic stint with Bournemouth, Iraola decided that now was the right time to leave. In his first season, he guided Bournemouth to 12th, followed by a record-matching season (on points) as they finished 9th. Now, they sit in 11th off the back of a 12-game unbeaten streak, prompting questions about why he has decided to leave at this point. Although there have been rumors of talks between him and the United board, Athletic Bilbao is also said to be interested. Of course, Bilbao is where Iraola spent 12 years playing – will he wish to return or carve out a new legacy with United?
Glasner confirmed his position as an elite manager with Frankfurt after the UEFA Europa League win in 2022. However, he has since proven himself as a top Premiership manager, leading Crystal Palace to their first ever major cup win (FA Cup). He has announced he will leave the Eagles at the end of this campaign, and we are confident the United board will be keen to hold talks with a manager of this caliber.
As we have mentioned, the race to become the next Manchester United manager is well and truly underway. Carrick has done a sterling job of bringing an identity back to a lackluster-looking United squad, but another loss – like that at the hands of Leeds on Monday – could be enough for the board to look elsewhere. Names like Iraola and Glasner have been confirmed to be free ahead of next season, and even Aston Villa’s Unai Emery may find the pull of the Red Devils too great to turn down. Rest assured, the markets at Kalshi will be quick to reflect any news, and we will be the first to keep you in the loop.
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