The campaign has yet to kick off, but NFL regular-season MVP prediction markets have started to move. Names like Allen, Jackson, and Burrow are already starting to charge ahead, and with a little help from Kalshi, we have looked at things a little further.
With draft picks and rosters now starting to take shape, it is no surprise to see that the NFL MVP list is heating up. Of course, without a single snap being played, it is difficult to predict potential outcomes ahead of schedule. In turn, this current list of likely candidates has been created based on past performances, a team’s expected chances of reaching the playoffs, and statistical projections.
Unsurprisingly, this means that four big-name QBs are currently out in front: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert.
| NFL Player | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13% | $0.13 | $0.90 |
| Lamar Jackson | 12% | $0.12 | $0.91 |
| Joe Burrow | 10% | $0.10 | $0.92 |
| Justin Herbert | 9% | $0.09 | $0.92 |
2024’s NFL MVP, Josh Allen, takes hold of the number-one spot. Last year, he helped drive the Bills to the playoffs and threw for over 3,600 yards. At 69.3%, his completion rate was higher than any previous year, throwing for 25 touchdowns. Of course, 10 interceptions is not what fans (or analysts) want to see, but it still leads to a rating of 102.2. Should the Bills have another high-flying season, we suspect Allen to be back in question.
Two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson is next in line. With a rating of 103.8, Jackson had a slightly higher rating than Allen last season; however, Jackson’s Ravens finished with a less-than-impressive 8-9 record. Although the regular season MVP is determined based on individual impact, it would be fair to say that the 7 interceptions thrown weren’t solely down to Jackson’s throwing ability. As evidenced by the 21 TDs and 2,549 yards covered.
We stay in the AFC North with Joe Burrow. This is a man who has taken his team to the SB final, suffered defeat, and dealt with countless injuries already through his career, but he continues to put on performances on the pitch.
The Bengals had a poor season last year, finishing 3rd with a record of 6-11. Some serious defensive additions put the Bengals in a better position to keep the opposition’s offense off the field, allowing Burrow the time to do what he does best. With just 5 INTs last year, Burrow will be looking to keep standards high, as he looks to improve on the 17 TD and 1,809 yards.
Although receiving just one vote for the NFL MVP last year, it would be fair to suggest that the Chargers QB was deserving of consideration. 26 TDs and 3,727 yards are some impressive stats by any standard, but this was significantly dropped by 13 interceptions.
The Chargers made it to the Wild Card round before being dropped by an in-form Patriots team. 11-6 isn’t the record of Super Bowl Champions, but significant offensive improvements (RB Keaton Mitchell, C Tyler Biadasz, and TE Charlie Kolar) will open up additional options for Herbert and a further push to become an NFL MVP.
Based on years gone by, it would seem unlikely for an MVP winner to come from an unknown prospect or outside of the ordinary. Generally speaking, the quarterback position dominates the award, and preseason favorites often stand the test of time.
That said, anything can happen in football, and we will be sure to keep you updated on this prediction market throughout the campaign. As things stand, however, it looks like a reliable QB from a high-flying team will likely become the eventual winner.
We can expect this Kalshi prediction market to be fairly erratic over the first few weeks. Allen and Jackson look like top contenders at this point in time, but a few 0-2 and 1-1 records would soon alter things as early as week 3. We suggest paying attention to the first few weeks to get a feel for how things could play out.
Josh Allen leads the charge, and past performances would suggest that this would be a sensible choice. It isn’t just Allen’s consistency, but can also rely on a competitive Bills offensive line and a defense that looks to turn things over swiftly.
Of course, with numerous additions to the Bengals roster, a fit Burrows could mount a charge. This is all without touching on Jackson, Maye, Herbert, and last year’s MVP Stafford.
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