New traders who are cutting their teeth on NFL prediction markets during the preseason can learn a lot from what forecasters are saying about Friday night’s Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos matchup at Empower Field.
To put it mildly, Kalshi account holders believe the Broncos are a huge favorite to win against the Packers. So much so that the price per contract on a Denver victory has gone as high as 74¢ this week. Right now, the Broncos are trading at 69¢ per contract, but that could change as trading volume increases.
For novice sports traders, the overarching story of tomorrow’s preseason game in Denver is this: Bo Nix will likely play an entire half against third-string defensive “bubble” players. Broncos head coach Sean Payton has mentioned that he’ll likely keep Nix in the game longer than usual (for a preseason contest) to further acclimate the former Oregon standout to this year’s offensive scheme.
By contrast, the Packers will sit their star players on the bench following the first series (if those players see any on-field action at all). The combination makes for a prediction market blowout with the Kalshi individual game “winner” market closing in on $100,000 in total trading volume.
Our readers already know that we’re really hesitant to buy contracts on any team that’s listed at 60 cents or more to win a preseason game. That trend holds in this case. We’re taking the Packers not because they’re likely to win on Friday, but because their price is so low, relatively speaking. Green Bay currently has a contract price of just 33 cents to win.
When such a wide trading gap exists between two NFL teams in a preseason game, the main story becomes the prediction market itself. This game won’t be an exception to that trend.
A healthy percentage of veteran traders are convinced that Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is going to throw for three touchdowns on the Packers defense by the time the first half concludes. But those same traders shouldn’t be surprised if Nix is unceremoniously yanked if his offensive line is underperforming.
There’s zero reason to subject star players to unnecessary injury risks during a preseason game, even if you are Sean Payton, who’s still trying to get his QB1 to gel with the team’s offensive formations and play style. Most of the Green Bay defense that will be on the field Friday night will be playing for a spot on the eventual 53-man roster, so don’t expect the Packers’ defense to hold back despite the preseason atmosphere.
We’ve learned from recent Kalshi politics markets that forecasting trends can be fickle when at least one side of the trade is aggressively engaged on a specific outcome. For this reason, we’re predicting that the Packers vs. Broncos market will break significantly between now and Friday afternoon. We’re uncertain which team’s contract price will benefit from that break, however.
Traders should keep a close eye on this “winner” market in case the Broncos’ per-contract price jumps to around 75 cents or the Packers’ contracts start trading above 40 cents. Fans who are not located in the Denver or Green Bay areas can stream Friday night’s preseason contest on the NFL Network.
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