The Offensive Player of the Year market has two clear-cut favorites, and they’re both running backs from the 2023 NFL Draft class. The field is led by Lions’ running back Jahmyr Gibbs, followed by Falcons’ running back Bijan Robinson. Each of these players is in a terrific position to put up huge numbers, but let’s dive into NFL prediction markets to see if there is a worthy challenger.
After scanning the board, it’s clear that going with the chalk may be the right move here.
At 12 cents, Bijan Robinson is the best buy right now. He’s going to be the focal point of the Falcons’ offense, where Tua Tagovailoa is likely to be under center to start the season. This is a quarterback that loves to check it down to his running back, as we saw in Miami with De’Von Achane. That means that Bijan could put up huge numbers through the air, and we already know what he can do on the ground.
It doesn’t surprise me to see Jahmyr Gibbs as the favorite for this award. With David Montgomery traded to the Texans, Gibbs is now the clear-cut focal point in the Lions’ backfield. He’ll be in an excellent offense that figures to score a lot of points, giving him a chance to rack up a bunch of touchdowns.
My one concern here is that Gibbs doesn’t have to be the complete focal point of the Lions’ offense. They still have other weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta. That doesn’t mean I don’t think that Gibbs will put up huge numbers. It’s just that he’s not relied upon as much as Bijan is in Atlanta.
The market has ranged from around 13.5% to 15%, so there hasn’t been too much movement on him here. Gibbs has been a mainstay at the top of this list, but I’d rather look down the board for the best value.
We just saw Bijan Robinson put up an incredible 2,298 yards from scrimmage last year. However, he only had 11 touchdowns, which is rather low for the kind of heavy volume he was seeing last year.
That’s because Tyler Allgeier often took away some touchdowns when the Falcons got in the red zone. But now, Allgeier has signed with the Cardinals. The Falcons replaced him with Brian Robinson, who isn’t nearly as effective. That means Bijan could see more red-zone opportunities this year, resulting in more touchdowns.
More touchdowns would give Bijan a more favorable stat line for voters for Offensive Player of the Year. Given that the Falcons will need to rely on him more than the Lions with Gibbs, I can see a scenario where he puts up better numbers.
Yes, the Falcons still have Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but that’s not as good of a skills group as St. Brown, Williams, and LaPorta. That one factor puts Bijan ahead of Gibbs for me.
Ja’Marr Chase has a good chance to be the second straight wide receiver to win this award, after Jaxon Smith-Njigba won it last season. There have been three wideouts in the last five years to take home Offensive Player of the Year.
Playing in a pass-heavy offense with Joe Burrow under center, Chase has both the talent and the situation to put up the massive numbers required to win Offensive Player of the Year. We saw Chase put up 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2024, so he’s clearly proven to be able to put up a huge stat line.
With that said, I prefer taking a running back to win this award because they get more touches. If I’m looking at a wide receiver, I prefer looking for more of a longshot, since their production can be a bit more volatile.
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