Before the start of the NFL season, there’s still a chance that players will be traded. This happens due to many different reasons, including player injuries, to release financial pressures of the more expensive players, and so on.
As the season gets closer, Polymarket is trading contracts on who is most likely to be traded before July 2026. Coming up, we’ll take a look at the recent events and help you weigh things up ahead of making predictions. We’ll guide you through it all, so you are ready to buy and sell event contracts on this market.
The 2026 draft might be over, but that doesn’t mean that the full lineup is set in stone. There is still plenty of time for NFL players to be traded before the start of the season, which is exactly what happened last year. For instance, players like George Pickens, Micah Parsons, Jalen Ramsey, and Minkah Fitzpatrick were all traded post-NFL Draft.
But why do players get traded following the draft? Let’s recap a few reasons why teams aren’t locked in after the NFL Draft:
Prediction markets like Polymarket are seeing an influx of users who are buying and selling contracts to indicate where they believe the NFL trades will go in 2026. At the time of writing, there has been $107,305 in volume traded on Polymarket so far. With a handful of players frontrunning this market, let’s take a closer look at the recent movements:
Out of all the potential trades, AJ Brown is the most likely, following his publicized frustrations with the Eagles’ offense. He has been surrounded by trade rumors for quite some time now, which haven’t been denied by the Eagles. At the time of writing, Polymarket is giving AJ Brown a 96% chance of being traded, which is up by 46%. Starting at 50% chance in February, it initially dropped to 15.5% on March 12th, but April saw a rapid increase to a 90%+ chance.
Kayvon Thibodeaux has been on the prospect list for being traded for a while now, as he enters the final year of his contract. Giants head coach John Harbaugh was recently asked about Thibodeaux and stated that “everybody’s tradeable”, which many fans took as an admission. However, Joe Schoen, general manager, confirmed that these rumors aren’t true. For now, Polymarket has given Kayvon Thibodeaux a 50% chance of being traded, which has stayed the same since March.
De’Von Achane has been rather unstable at Polymarket, with users pushing the chance of him being traded at 32%, which is down by 8%. Achane’s chance of being traded has seen a downward trend since March, but it hasn’t been a straight road. The chance has fluctuated between 14% and 50%, changing every few hours consistently.
Brian Thomas Jr. is a rather unstable market. During our visit, the chance of him being traded fell from 26% to 25% within 30 seconds, which is now down by 70%. Back in March, the chance of being traded plummeted from 94% to 5.5% in just 24 hours. It then stayed at 2.8% until April, when it started rising once again.
Polymarket is giving you the opportunity to trade event contracts on 15 NFL players who may be traded by July 2026. If you buy a Yes contract for any of the following NFL players and they are traded by the deadline, it will settle at $1. With the markets consistently fluctuating, some changing every few minutes, you need to move fast to secure your price.
Check out the following table that outlines the chance of the NFL player being traded, as believed by the market, along with the Yes and No contract price:
| NFL Player | Chance | Yes Contract | No Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Brown | 96% | 97.5¢ | 4.9¢ |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 50% | 98¢ | 99¢ |
| George Pickens | 33% | 64¢ | 99¢ |
| De’Von Achane | 32% | 63¢ | 99¢ |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 26% | 47.1¢ | 95.3¢ |
| Trey Hendrickson | 25% | 48.8¢ | 99¢ |
| Alvin Kamara | 14% | 24.9¢ | 97.8¢ |
| Kyler Murray | 12% | 22.3¢ | 98.9¢ |
| Alec Pierce | 11% | 20.9¢ | 98.4¢ |
| Breece Hall | 4% | 6.9¢ | 99.1¢ |
| Mike Evans | 2% | 2.6¢ | 98.5¢ |
| Travis Etienne | 1% | 2.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
| Trent Williams | 1% | 1.3¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Jalen Carter | 1% | 1¢ | 99.6¢ |
| DK Metcalf | <1% | 0.6¢ | 99.8¢ |
Polymarket is giving traders the chance to buy and sell event contracts on which NFL players will be traded this year. With 15 potential NFL players who are rumored to be getting traded, the chance of this happening ranges from 96% to less than 1%, depending on the player. With new updates coming in thick and fast, alongside head coaches and managers being interviewed, the market is fluctuating all the time. Some NFL players are seeing price increases and drops every few minutes, so you will need to act fast if you want to secure a price.
If you are ready to get stuck into this market and predict which NFL player will be traded, Polymarket is one of the most thriving prediction market sites right now. All that’s left is for you to follow the promotional banners on this page to sign up for an account today and see how the market looks.
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