The 2025-26 NHL Stanley Cup Final got off to a thrilling start Tuesday night, as Carolina forward Nikolaj Ehlers scored on the very first shot to give the Hurricanes the lead just 25 seconds into Game 1. A few minutes later, Ehlers got his second goal on a lazy center pass the the VGK offense, and it looked like Carolina might blow the Golden Knights out before the end of the 1st Period.
But 30 seconds into the 2nd period, Vegas had already tied the game. And when the final buzzer sounded, the Vegas Golden Knights overcame sloppy offensive turnovers to win Game 1 by a final score of 5-4. The action returns to Lenovo Center tonight, with the Hurricanes in desperate need of a home win before heading to Vegas.
The Kalshi moneyline for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final is almost identical to Game 1. Carolina is priced at 60¢ to win while a Vegas victory will cost traders 41 cents per contract.
And just as we did for Game 1, we’re inclined to buck the trend and go against forecasters on the world’s largest prediction market. The Vegas Golden Knights have won 7 postseason games in a row. There’s no reason to doubt their ability to take both of the opening SCF games as the visiting team against Carolina.
Take the Vegas Golden Knights on Kalshi for 41¢, in our opinion. If you’re looking for an extra cushion, you can go with the +1.5 goals at 64 cents. If the Golden Knights can eliminate their offensive miscues for the rest of the series, they’ll be in prime position to hoist the 2025-26 NHL Stanley Cup.
If there was one pleasant surprise for the Hurricanes in Game 1 (aside from their extremely quick start), it was the ability to score three goals against Carter Hart’s blocker side. Hart was impressive with the glove, but was somewhat exposed on the blocker side due to not being able to react quickly enough to prevent Carolina’s scoring attempts.
The Hurricanes will need to focus their attacks and SOG to Hart’s right-hand side in Game 2. If they’re unable to execute on that weakness, then their other opportunity to capture a Game 2 victory and stabilize the series is to hope that Vegas hands over the puck multiple times again through head-scratching center passes.
With the series heading to T-Mobile Center in Vegas this weekend, the Hurricanes can ill-afford to drop another game and travel from their home rink facing a 0-2 Stanley Cup Final series deficit.
The storyline here is that, after dropping immediately following Game 1, the Carolina Hurricanes moneyline has rebounded all the way back up to 61 cents. As stated above, we disagree with that assessment, but trading volume – of around $300,000 for Game 2 – can impact forecasting lines if there’s a trend in favor of one of the competing teams.
Another surprise is that the Carolina -1.5 goals point spread has surged in price to 38 cents, which is up almost 20 cents per contract from early Wednesday morning. Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final starts tonight at 8:00 Eastern in Raleigh.
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