The 2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy looks to have split into a three-horse race. Currently, McDavid, Kucherov, and MacKinnon are leading the way, and it is clear to see why. With a little help from the markets over at Kalshi, we’ve attempted to dissect things a little further for you.
Statistically, little separates Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, and Nathan MacKinnon. All have had exceptional seasons, but the point totals tend to have the final say. With this in mind, let us quickly itemize a few quick reasons for each candidate.
As with most sports prediction markets, the Hart Memorial Trophy predictions have moved considerably throughout the season. Although this table portrays McDavid as a clear favorite, you only have to review the market movement over the last few months to see that anything can happen.
| Hart Memorial Winner | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 53% | $0.53 | $0.48 |
| Nikita Kucherov | 35% | $0.35 | $0.66 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 12% | $0.12 | $0.91 |
We have also seen Kucherov gain traction outside these markets, becoming a name that NHL analysts have praised heavily for input and work rate beyond scoring metrics. When totals are as tight as they are, this is certainly something to bear in mind.
We’ve already provided you with a snapshot of the market leaders, but let us now focus on the stats.
Unsurprisingly, the league’s top scorer leads the way. This season alone, McDavid added 138 points to his tally in 82 games, with 40 goals and 90 assists.
In total, McDavid now has 1,220 points in just 794 games of his career. What comes next for the stat-filler? Perhaps this impressive season will be capped off by becoming the Hart Memorial Winner.
2020 and 2021’s Stanley Cup-winning seasons for the Tampa Bay Lightning will undoubtedly be Kucherov’s favorite campaigns to date. However, this year’s offensive input and overall value that he has offered to the team may well outshine them both.
The right-winger has averaged 1.81 points per game this season – a stat that puts him above McDavid – but it has been his assists that have been the biggest contributor (84). Not to mention that he has been amongst the top scorers for three consecutive seasons. He now has over 1,000 career points.
With 4 goals and 6 assists already in the playoffs, the Avalanche’s star Center is also in the mix. From a stats POV, the league total hasn’t been quite as impressive as Kucherov and McDavid, but MacKinnon has been efficient in all areas.
This creates an interesting dynamic, as it is often the stats that will lead the way with analysts. However, the transition play, intensity, and strength shown all over the rink, alongside well-rounded stats, have definitely grabbed the attention of the market.
In truth, McDavid, Kucherov, and MacKinnon have been so dominant throughout this campaign that it feels unlikely that a surprise winner will take the Hart Memorial Trophy. Unless we see a dramatic end-of-season shift, we suspect that a winner will come from this trio.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that movement cannot occur, and for those looking at entries and exits, they may wish to consider Macklin Celebrini as an outsider. Based on recent figures, the Center’s probability is up 3% – how much more it will go up without a playoff spot is the issue here.
When it comes to actively trading the Hart Memorial Trophy, you need to consider market movement, upcoming fixtures, and whether you plan to hold or find an exit. However, you need to focus more generally on these key areas before making your picks.
Although Connor McDavid leads the league in totals and is considered the top choice in the latest Kalshi prediction market, we have to say that Kucherov is considered the strongest contender overall.
As evidenced, Kucherov sits just below McDavid on the stats boards, but it isn’t just the totals that will be taken into consideration for the Hart Memorial Trophy. Kucherov’s impact on the Tampa Bay Lightning team has been evidenced since 2013, but beyond winning the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021, this season has arguably been his most well-rounded. So much so that it has sparked conversations from NHL analysts, fans, and us here at Deadspin.
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