If you tuned in live to the final round of the 2026 PGA Championship, Aaron Rai’s play didn’t really come into focus until he made an eagle on Hole 9. Two hours later, he would become the first Englishman in over a century to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy.
The contrast of play between Rai and the competition on the final round Back 9 was obvious for any observer who’s played the game. While Rai was consistently putting himself in position to win, the other leaders faltered. Matti Schmid? Couldn’t hit a fairway. Rory McIlroy? Couldn’t get anything going in the final round. FedEx Cup points leader Scottie Scheffler? His day was done nearly as soon as the telecast started.
If the PGA Championship taught us anything about golf’s next major, it’s that performance on the Back 9 during the final round is at a premium. With that in mind, we turn our attention to the 126th US Open – the third major of the year. The US Open will be played at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York, with 156 players scheduled to tee-off for the first round on June 18th.
Taking a look at the current Kalshi prediction markets, we see that Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are optimally priced at 16 cents and 9 cents, respectively, per-contract to win the major. Both are in the Top 10 FedEx Cup Rankings going into Thursday’s tee time. McIlroy’s last major victory was earlier this year at The Masters, with Scheffler coming up just short in second place.
If you’re like us, and believe that both competitors will bring their ‘A’ game for the final holes of the 2026 US Open, then picking up both contracts is a reasonable play if you’re a Kalshi trader.
All eyes are on the weather forecast for Southampton. While the conditions are forecast to be relatively pleasant for the first two rounds (with highs in the mid-70s), rain and wind could very well become a factor by the time the final round begins.
Slow greens and unwieldy gusts of wind could have a “make or break” impact on how the US Open plays out over the weekend. Overcast skies could also lead to action being halted an hour before dusk, which could also force players on the leaderboard to play more than 18 holes on the following day.
The shock of Aaron Rai winning the PGA Championship hasn’t translated into increased odds for the US Open. Despite instantly earning a Top 30 spot in the FedEx Cup Rankings, Rai has a 1-cent contract price on winning two majors in a row.
Former LIV Golf star Bryson DeChambeau is currently sitting at 4% to win the US Open. You can pick up a contract on him to outperform the field at 4 cents. Cameron Young is another strong contender to win the US Open whose price has plummeted (despite his #2 FedEx Cup ranking) since Aaron Rai’s unlikely PGA Championship victory. Young’s “to win” price is listed at 5 cents on Kalshi, but could rise depending on traders’ perception of how the elements might affect different players leading up to Thursday, June 18th.
If you’d like to watch the tournament live, you can tune in to NBC starting with the first round. However, that coverage will be partial. If you want to see all the action as it happens, you’ll need a premium Peacock subscription.
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