Politics has grown in popularity throughout the United States in recent years as voters head to the polls to cast their ballots in thousands of local, state, and federal elections across the country. The popularity of prediction markets related to US politics has grown, too. If we use the “overall trading volume” metric, political events on Polymarket have attracted billions of USDC in this year alone!
But can traders actually turn a profit within these markets? Or are they simply too volatile for any one trader to enjoy a long-term edge? The answers to the previous two questions are Yes and No, respectively. Follow along as we break down the Top 5 politics traders on Polymarket.
Each of the five Polymarket account holders below has made over $1 million solely by trading on politics markets.
If the highest PnL margin represents the “best” trading performance, then “denizz” tops our list for all-time most successful politics traders. The account has $3.6 million in winning trades versus just $1.09 million in unsuccessful politics forecasts, for a PnL of $2.5 million. Who says political elections are hard to predict?
Over the course of this account’s life cycle, nearly 1,000 positions on political outcomes have been held, with 37 still active today. What’s more, the win percentage is astronomical… “denizz” has been correct in 74.1% of all politics trades on Polymarket.
The platform estimates this account’s net worth to be $1.1 million.
While this account name may be difficult to pronounce, the individual behind it has had no issues being on the PnL “plus” side when forecasting political outcomes on Polymarket. This account’s win-loss percentage of just 42.3% may not be the best, but it’s the amount of the winning trades that matter the most if you want to wind up in the “green.”
The “tdrhrhhd” account has only $116,000 in losing trades within the politics category. That may seem like a lot until you notice the $2.6 million in correct political predictions. With a PnL of $2.48 million, this Polymarket account is a serious contender to overtake the top spot on our list, despite having only 34 lifetime positions overall.
This account’s estimated net worth comes in at $57,200.
“ImJustKen” is by far the most active politics trader on this Top 5 list, with 8,835 total positions and 333 active trades. This makes the 63.0% win rate associated with the account even more impressive. While Polymarket has the individual pegged at approximately half a million in net worth, it’s the overall profit that counts in terms of deciding who the Top 5 Polymarket politics traders are.
The “ImJustKen” screen name has amassed a PnL margin of $2.4 million, good enough to make the Top 3. There are $4.4 million in winning political trades versus $2 million in losses. Given the seemingly obsessive trading volume that this user has put into the politics category, we believe it will still be among the best traders for months to come.
Curiously, there’s usually one trader on the Polymarket all-time lists that posts numbers that are eye-dropping. Such is the case with “elmcap2,” who enjoys a 94.5% win rate for all political forecasts. The account currently has 87 active positions within the category to go with 830 completed trades.
The “elmcap2” account also enjoys the highest category-specific trading volume on this list, with Polymarket Analytics showing a $7.2 million approximation. This account has lost roughly $100,000 on political trades, but has countered that statistic by posting $1.8 million in political market “victories.” This brings the total PnL figure to $1.7 million for this account.
This account has settled 300 positions in the Polymarket politics category and has 42 forecasts pending. The 56.4% win percentage may not be extraordinary compared to others on this list, but the $1.694 million PnL margin tells a more important part of the story.
The “wan123” account holder has only $628,400 in losing politics-related predictions, compared to $2.3 million in correct forecasts. The approximate net worth of “wan123” is posted at just under half a million, according to Polymarket Analytics.
Think you can predict political election outcomes better than the five accounts on our list? You can sign up for a new Polymarket account today and get started. Politics markets offer “yes/no” options for anticipated outcomes of elections.
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