Nothing short of a win will do for Senegal as they face Iraq in their third group stage match on Friday in Toronto. The current Group I table standings have Senegal in third place, on zero, ahead of Iraq, thanks to a smaller goal difference. Both nations are theoretically now eliminated from the round of 32, but it could still be technically possible for Senegal to progress. Let’s take a look at what’s at stake and how the traders at Kalshi are viewing the outcome of this match.
In a group with Mbappe’s France and Haaland’s Norway, Senegal were always going to struggle. However, the numbers haven’t been as one-sided as the two losses would suggest. Against Norway, Senegal managed to score two, including an injury-time goal, but ran out of time to force an equaliser. Similarly, in the game against France, Senegal managed to score a late goal to cut the scoreline down to a 1-3 defeat.
At Kalshi, Senegal is far and away the favorite to win this match, with a probability of 79% compared to Iraq’s 8%. The so-called Lions of Teranga have managed to score against two major European sides, showing that they’re consistently able to mix with the best and giving them the edge here.
As things stand, Senegal is third on the Group I table and 12th on the overall table of third-placed teams. For them to progress, several other results need to occur in other groups, but there is a possibility that they could make it to the final 32.
We have heard rumours about discontent in the Senegal camp regarding unpaid bonuses and changes to the cooking staff. But these don’t seem likely to derail Senegal as they head into their final group game.
Iraq lost 4-1 to Norway in a game that saw them build plenty of chances but fail to capitalise. Similarly, Iraq fell 3-1 to France in their second game after severe weather delayed the start of the second half by two hours.
Realistically, it will be very unlikely for Iraq to now move beyond the group stages. However, in a World Cup where they have faced setbacks and intense scrutiny, Iraq will hope to manage one win from their group.
At the moment, the traders at Kalshi place Senegal front and center to win this match, with an implied probability of 79%.
| Team | Implied probability of winning | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal | 79% | $0.79 | $0.22 |
| Tie | 14% | $0.14 | $0.87 |
| Iraq | 8% | $0.08 | $0.93 |
With numbers that strong, a pick on Senegal to win may not be the best choice at World Cup prediction markets. That’s no worries at Kalshi, though, as you’ll find a wide range of other markets. Plus, Kalshi is simple to use for beginners and more experienced traders and offers a great assortment of prop markets. Let’s take a look at some of our other picks for this Group I match:
Iraq has conceded seven goals across their last two matches, including three to France and four to Norway, and Senegal has scored three across two matches. The mix of Senegal’s powerful attacking force and Iraq’s defensive vulnerabilities likely means that this could be a high-scoring game, leading us to go out on a bit of a limb for the total over 3.5.
With Senegal pushing hard, Iraq may be able to find space on the counterattack. Hussein scored Iraq’s only goal so far in this competition and has a total of 33 across 94 international appearances, so he would likely be the centerpiece of an Iraq attack.
Senegal has emerged as one of the triumphs of the expanded World Cup format and has demonstrated that it can more than hold their own against some of the best teams in Europe. The Senegal squad is higher in quality across most positions than Iraq and has several world-class players, including Sadio Mané and Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson.
Iraq has demonstrated solid potential but has struggled to maintain a strong backing that can consistently face the finest international sides. If Senegal commits to attacking early and maintains sustained pressure, we don’t think Iraq will be able to repel them for long. If you haven’t done so already, lock in your predictions for this match by pressing on our links to visit Kalshi.
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