The race for the Texas Republican nominee for the US Senate couldn’t be closer. After some big variations on prediction market Kalshi, candidates Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are locked at a 50% chance of success each.
Cornyn and Paxton faced each other initially in the March 3rd Primary, but after all candidates failed to receive the required 50% of the vote, the winner will now be settled by a runoff election in May 2026. Each candidate has seen their chances swing dramatically, so if you’re making your prediction on this race, we’ve got the full details.
On May 26th, 2026 Republican voters in Texas will have to decide whether Attorney General Ken Paxton or Senator John Cornyn takes on Democratic Representative James Talarico in the battle for Texas’s place in the Senate. All other candidates were eliminated in the Primary, or have withdrawn, meaning only Paxton and Cornyn remain.
A politician and lawyer, Paxton has served as Attorney General of Texas since 2015. He has also served in the House of Representatives and the Texas Senate. Staunchly Conservative, Paxton is a long-time supporter of President Trump.
The incumbent US Senator for Texas, Cornyn, is seeking a fifth Senate term. Cornyn narrowly led Paxton in the March Primary vote, with 41.9% compared to Paxton’s 40.7%, but momentum now seems to have shifted.
There are no other candidates left in this race, so Kalshi is entirely focusing on Paxton and Cornyn, with a current ‘Yes’ contract hovering at $0.50 for both.
In a recent Quantus poll, Ken Paxton emerged as the slim leader in terms of public support. This poll, completed between March 21st and 23rd, concluded that Paxton currently holds 48.8% of support, compared to Corbyn’s 41.3%.
President Trump has reportedly stated that he would select a candidate to endorse, but has yet to do so. Despite publicly commenting that close, and controversial, contests such as this Senate fight are negative for the Republican Party, Trump has largely stayed out of this race.
If Trump were to endorse one of the candidates, the same Quantus poll mentioned above reported that it could have a significant impact on public opinion. If Trump were to endorse Cornyn, 18.3% of voters said that they would be more likely to support him, while this number increases to 25.3% for Paxton.
This market is incredibly volatile and has seen huge gains and losses for each candidate’s chances of success over the past two weeks. Here’s a look at the latest prediction market movements:
In just a few days, Ken Paxton’s ‘Yes’ probability has increased on Kalshi to place him dead even with John Cornyn. From around 20% at the beginning of March, Paxton’s implied probability of winning has steadily increased to a current ranking of 50%.
Between March 2nd and now, John Cornyn’s chances of reaching the Senate again have fluctuated wildly at Kalshi. From a high of 82% on March 6th, Cornyn’s chances have settled to 50%.
Paxton has mooted the idea of dropping out of the Senate nominee race. His condition for doing so would be the passing of the Save America Bill, a piece of legislation that aims to prevent voter fraud by requiring all voters to provide proof of citizenship before they’re able to vote.
John Cornyn has represented Texas in the Senate four times, so it’s clear he has a lot of experience and a strong track record with Lone Star voters. However, there are some Republicans who question his commitment to wider Republican Party goals. Paxton is a harder-line Conservative whose views seem to be resonating with the Texas electorate.
If you want to trade on this question or other election prediction markets, Kalshi is a top choice. Here’s how to get started:
The table below shows the current implied probabilities and prices for each position on this contract. Bear in mind that bid-ask spread and market liquidity can mean prices don’t always add up to $1.
| Nominee | Chance | ’Yes’ trading price | ’No’ trading price |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn | 49% | $0.50 | $0.51 |
| Ken Paxton | 50% | $0.50 | $0.51 |
It’s very difficult to split these two candidates and that’s resulted in some very close markets at Kalshi. After market fluctuations, both Paxton and Cornyn are standing firm right now at 50% each. Both Paxton and Cornyn are experienced public servants, but various factors, such as an endorsement from President Trump, could tip this balance.
If you’d like to make a prediction on the winner, you can do so in seconds by using the banners on this page to go straight to Kalshi.
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