Roughly 2,700 years after Homer’s tale began circulating, director Christopher Nolan has put together an all-star cast to recreate one of the most iconic stories in human history. This weekend, movie-goers around the world will pack IMAX theaters to witness a movie shot entirely on IMAX 15-perf 70mm film.
Although the anticipation is extremely high ahead of opening weekend, prediction market traders are much more interested in what the Rotten Tomatoes “Tomatometer” score will be as of Monday morning, July 20th. Can the movie truly achieve a score above 95 once critics have watched the R-rated film that has a run time of nearly three hours?
There are multiple reasons why we’re absorbing “no” contracts on Tomatometer scores exceeding 93 once Monday morning is upon us. Movie fans who have secured tickets to one of the very few “true” IMAX theaters are going to immediately notice that the screen is tall, and almost square, compared to traditional widescreen cinema. That’s going to be great for individuals who are seated in the mid-row “sweet spots” of the IMAX theater, but sub-optimal for paying customers who will be viewing from chairs that are too close, too far, or too sideways to fully capture the essence of 18k fidelity.
“Grand Theater” IMAX screens are 60 feet high and 80 feet wide, meaning that viewers in the first few rows will have to crane their necks upwards for three hours straight while missing some of the peripheral picture. Those who go out this weekend and watch the movie on a normal theater screen will see a motion picture that is cropped by roughly 40%.
In other words, we’re predicting that the viewing “experience” will bring the Tomatometer for The Odyssey down to at least 93 by Monday morning regardless of how great the actual movie is.
The Odyssey is expected to gross around $1 billion in box office revenue for the duration of its worldwide movie theater run. Matt Damon’s projected base salary is a whopping $15 million, and that’s before any percentage-based deals he may have negotiated are paid out.
IMAX theater tickets are actually selling for hundreds of dollars on the resale market. There’s no doubt that this movie will be a blockbuster, but we can’t ignore the physical fatigue that some weekend critics may experience. And missing 40% of the entire image by going to a normal movie theater seems like another variable that will ultimately bring the Tomatometer score down to 93 or lower by Monday morning.
Pay close attention to Kalshi’s settlement terms on this market. A “yes” trade on the score being “Above 94” means that your contract will not pay out if the exact score at 10:00am Eastern Time on July 20th is 94.
A very small (yet meaningful) percentage of movie fans at “Grand Theater” IMAX locations will likely be forced to exit well before the movie’s end due to nausea or muscle soreness. As soon as the word gets out that a seven-story screen won’t enhance the viewing experience from sub-optimal seats, the Kalshi market is likely to break in favor of a lower Tomatometer score.
The “no” option for the score above 94 is currently available for less than 50 cents per contract. That’s the best play here for pro traders. The Odyssey promises to be a worldwide success, but it won’t break 93 on the Tomatometer by Monday morning, in our view.
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