The popularity of prediction market platforms is undeniable. Every day and night, thousands of forecasters test their beliefs and skills to see if they can correctly predict an event before it comes to pass.
But, have you ever wondered what THE most popular prediction markets are? If so, then read on to discover the top 5 prediction markets that are taking the world by storm right now.
Given the high stakes political climate in the United States, it comes as no surprise that the upcoming presidential election is garnering so much attention. Forecasters on Polymarket have put a literal ton of projection effort into trades on who will become the next US chief executive.
In fact, there is approximately $75 billion in open interest (meaning trades that have yet to be resolved) already calculated into the 2028 presidential election. What’s more… there is still plenty of time between now and 2028 to decide who you think will win the general election.
Will it be current vice president JD Vance? Or maybe Marco Rubio? What about Gavin Newsom? Gretchen Whitmer? Josh Shapiro? Former vice president Kamala Harris?
The 2028 presidential nominee field is guaranteed to be stacked with talent (or lack thereof, depending on your political leanings). Total volume for the current period is already close to $600 million.
While the current frontrunners are Vance and Rubio (in that order), you can pick up a lot of value if you predict any potential winner, as none of the potential winners are priced anywhere close to 25 cents. If you’re banking on a democrat taking over the White House in early 2029, then there are several nominees that are competitively priced under 10 cents per contract.
This market is tied to critical world affairs and may not be for everyone, but prediction market fans are gobbling up each side of the “yes/no” equation at a record pace. There’s more than $18B in outstanding trades with hundreds of millions going into each vote every few days.
Additionally, you can somewhat hedge your trades on this topic by selecting one of the numerous “by” dates that are listed. If you expect a permanent peace deal to happen soon, the per-contract prices drop significantly.
Sticking with US politics, traders have differing beliefs on which democratic hopeful will be on the ballot for the 2028 general election. The only certainty is that the “D-side” of the ballot has attracted a host of casual and serious forecasters.
Total volume for the 2028 democratic presidential nominee is already up to $1.15B in recent days, with overall unsettled trades coming in at $16 billion on Polymarket alone. That’s quite a lot of interest, and you can get in on the action, too!
For now, Gavin Newsom is the favorite at 25 cents. He is the sitting governor of California, but will vacate the governor’s mansion on January 1st, 2027, due to term limits. Traders also like the chances of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris, and Georgia senator Jon Ossoff – but neither of these selections have reached 10 cents per contract.
Although the 2028 Democratic Primary concludes before the general election date of November 6th, 2028, this trade does not close until the Tuesday of the general election. However, if tradition holds, you can expect this market to essentially close down once the 2028 Democratic Convention has ended in August 2028.
Soccer may be somewhat of an “acquired taste” for US sports enthusiasts, but the rest of the world goes absolutely nuts every four years. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will span the entirety of North America, with matches slated for Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
Who’s your favorite? Right now, Spain, France, Brazil, and England are all in the lead in terms of trading activity, but neither has a listed price of more than 19 cents for prediction market sports traders. That will obviously change once the action begins and teams are knocked out, but for now, the race is wide open.
Forecasters are putting in over a billion dollars in trades every cycle leading up to the FIFA World Cup. Open interest is quickly approaching $15 billion on Polymarket, so there’s quite a bit of availability regardless of which team you think will ultimately win.
Just like its Democratic counterpart, this trade won’t resolve until election day in November 2028. That hasn’t stopped traders from making predictions, though.
With $12B in open interest, you can expect this market to attract billions more per cycle once 2028 draws near. Sitting vice president JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio lead all comers right now.
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