In 2025, following the US presidential election, the popularity of prediction market contracts soared. As a result, the Polymarket exchange experienced record-breaking forecast volume over – resulting in four of its five most highly traded “yes/no” predictions ever.
In this article, we’ll break down the all-time largest prediction markets, based on total trading volume. In all, Polymarket traders placed more than $8 billion in predictions on the following markets alone.
We’ve yet to see any prediction market that rivals the trading volume that took place before the 2024 US presidential election was determined. Would then-Vice President Kamala Harris maintain the Blue Wall and win the nomination for the Democrats? Or would Donald Trump complete one of the biggest political comebacks in US history and walk into the White House for a second, non-consecutive term? More than $3.68B was on the line leading into that fateful November 5th evening.
When the dust cleared, Donald Trump had not only swept all seven “swing states,” but had also won the “popular vote” for Republicans – a first since the 2004 election that pitted incumbent George W. Bush against John Kerry. Traders who were able to buy Trump for 58% before the polls closed were treated to a handsome payout and a race that was decided just a few hours into Election Night 2024.
By the end of May 2025, the Oklahoma City Thunder had posted one of the most impressive regular season win-loss records in NBA history, going 64-18 overall. But could the team actually capture its first NBA championship since 1979, when it was called the Seattle Supersonics?
Things got off to a rocky start in the NBA Finals, as the stubborn Indiana Pacers were able to win Game 2 at Paycom Center. It all came down to a decisive Game 7 in June 2025, where OKC capitalized on a 3rd Quarter rally to overcome the Pacers and win their first championship in nearly five decades.
Polymarket traders set the current sports contract volume record on the platform, through $1.7B in total forecasts. Most of those predictions were in favor of the Thunder, who were priced between 74-77 cents before Game 7 of the 2024-25 NBA Finals tipped off.
Polymarket traders went wild in anticipation of the NFL Super Bowl, which featured a matchup that many experts were calling a “toss-up.” It was the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes against the Philadelphia Eagles’ dual offensive threat of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.
The Chiefs entered the game with a slight moneyline edge of 55%, but Kansas City believers soon wished they had chosen the other team. Four quarters and $1.15B in total trades later, the Eagles won their second Super Bowl in franchise history. The final score was 40-22, but the game wasn’t really that close, as the Eagles led 40-6 midway through the final quarter.
The May 2025 Champions League Final attracted just over $1B in volume from Polymarket traders, who gave Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) a 62% moneyline edge over Inter Milan to win the championship. By the time Minute-90 arrived, PSG had secured a 5-0 shutout win, as traders who predicted the team’s dominance were rewarded with a one-dollar per contract payout.
As a result, Europe’s version of “football” made its way onto the all-time list for most highly traded prediction markets, a position it still retains while being one of only four trades to exceed $1B in total volume.
Liverpool was in prime position to hoist the Premier League trophy well before the season ended, but that didn’t stop Polymarket forecasters from placing more than $800 million in trades. While the Reds technically had enough of a points lead to win outright in April, the market only resolved on May 25th, following a meaningless tie between Liverpool and Crystal Palace.
Will future elections and sports contest contracts outpace the current Top 5 most popular trades ever? You can sign up for a Polymarket account and begin trading on current ultra-popular markets right now.
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