Fight fans, are you ready? UFC 329 is just a day away and prediction market trading volume on the Kalshi main event winner’s market is set to reach $20 million in the aftermath of this morning’s weigh-in and ceremonial staredown in Las Vegas.
“The Notorious” Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon after a 5-year hiatus to face “Blessed” Max Holloway in a 5-round welterweight showdown tomorrow night. But all eyes are on T-Mobile Arena this morning as the hype for the duo’s rematch reaches its peak.
This is a main event showcase that has Conor McGregor listed as a 2-to-1 underdog while sharps are convinced that Holloway’s chances for success exceed 70 percent. The vast majority of trades on Kalshi are in support of Conor McGregor, but the high-dollar “yes” contracts are getting absorbed by Holloway backers as soon as they drop to 65 cents.
Conor, in street clothes, looked old Thursday when the two fighters faced off. Holloway, by contrast, looked like the welterweight contender he plans to be once he avenges his 2013 decision loss to “The Notorious” tomorrow night.
We’re taking Max Holloway all day long, even if he’s bumped up to more than 70 cents per contract. That’s unlikely to happen, though. Casual fans attracted by name recognition are more than happy to pick Conor despite him being a clear underdog to last 25 total minutes in the Octagon. If ever there was a market in which recreational forecasters are setting up to get absolutely plowed, this is it.
Both fighters are tracking to make the 170 lb weight limit, which shouldn’t be too difficult to achieve considering their backgrounds competing in the featherweight division when they were younger. The incentives are simply too high for either fighter to risk being fined 20%-30% of their purse for failing to make weight.
Yesterday’s face-off was entertaining as expected. Conor McGregor removed Max Holloway’s sunglasses and both had to be held back by a pair of musclemen to prevent them from engaging further. McGregor is set to make a bare minimum of $15 million tomorrow night, a figure that could easily double due to sponsorships. Holloway will be guaranteed a career-high $3 million.
The Kalshi winner’s market for the UFC 329 main event isn’t going to cool off. There will be ample opportunity for traders to get their picks secured and plenty of volume to make the ticker scroll into infinity. Expect endless replays of this morning’s weigh-in to be broadcast nationwide on the eve of the big fight.
We don’t expect the winner’s market to move much in terms of percentages between now and tomorrow night. Both sides are locked in at current contract prices and are adamant they have the outcome correctly pegged. Conor McGregor’s future earning potential won’t be impacted by a loss tomorrow night. Neither Crawford nor Mayweather will agree to a crossover MMA fight, but there’s enough investment money to make a boxing bout against “The Notorious” worth their while.
If you’re in the United States and want to watch UFC 329 starting with prelims and ending with the main event, you can subscribe to Paramount+ by tomorrow afternoon.
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