Malott's momentum and versatility could lead to a KO or submission
A fifth consecutive loss for Burns could lead to retirement
Kalshi markets favor Malott ahead of UFC Fight Night 273
UFC Fight Night 273 will take place in Winnipeg, Canada, and it sees Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott in the main event. As things stand, Malott is the favorite ahead of this one, but the in-cage wisdom and experience mean that you simply can’t count Burns out. With a little assistance from the prediction markets over at Kalshi, we break down what to expect on the night.
Before you go searching for a promo code for use at Kalshi, we want to ensure that you have an understanding of what each of these fighters will be bringing to Winnipeg on April 18th.
An established name within the UFC Welterweight division, holding a competitive record of 22-9-0. Although coming off the back of a four-fight losing streak, Burns has undoubtedly had more in-cage experience, holding his own against the likes of Belal, Chimaev, and Usman. Making his debut back in 2014, there is no doubt about this man’s durability; however, a recent first-round knockout is enough for fight fans to consider a Malott win. If it is a loss for Burns, we have a feeling that we could see the gloves coming off.
Mike Mallott comes into this fight on a three-fight winning streak and with a record of 13-2-1. He is also five years younger than Burns and has the home-crowd advantage. On paper, the caliber of fighters that Malott has faced has been less impressive, but we have seen a consistent rise in the rankings, as seen with a win over #13 Keven Holland. We aren’t sure that a win here is enough to earn a fight against a top-ten Welterweight, but Malott is definitely on the watchlist of many.
With a recent first-round knockout loss hanging on his record, it would be fair to suggest that the chin of Burns isn’t his strongest asset. What many will have forgotten going into this, however, is that this man is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. In fact, he isn’t just a black belt; he is a 2011 IBJJF World Championship (GI), 2010 IBJJF World Championship (No-Gi), and 2010 UAEJJF Abu Dhabi World Pro winner.
Of course, although not a world champion, Malott also holds the rank of BJJ black belt. Additionally, you will find more versatility with Malott’s game, as demonstrated in his last six wins. Two of these were by KO, two by decision, and two by submission. This confirms his BJJ ability, highlights genuine striking power, and also the potential to go the distance.
Generally speaking, fights such as these (veteran vs. up-and-coming fighter) will often come down to whoever gains early control. However, this can quickly switch in the later rounds, as fatigue starts to kick in.
As both of these fighters are established grapplers, it will be interesting to see who takes control of the mat. Despite Malott’s impressive takedown defense, we would suggest that Burns should have the slight upper hand here. We suspect that Burns will look to secure positions early, aiming to avoid taking this fight the distance. If successful, we could see Burns win as soon as round 2.
Although he was able to reach the fifth round in 2024, taking it the distance against an established (and versatile) fighter is a dangerous move. Should we start to edge towards the fourth and fifth rounds, we could see a complete change in momentum. Burns will be fatigued based on age and fighting for position, and Malott will be feeling it from fighting to avoid submission. However, the variety of attacks in Malott’s arsenal will be enough to seal the deal. This could be a fourth or fifth-round KO or a takedown of his own.
If we find Malott taking early ownership of this bout, then we could see a very different story unfold. Fighting for position is less taxing than fighting to avoid submission, and we could see Burns drained within the first couple of rounds.
This, in itself, could lead to the early submission of Burns. However, if they decide to go all BMF and stand and bang their way through this one, then we see no other outcome than a Malott win by KO. A matter of when, not if.
| Fighter | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burns | 29% | $0.29 | $0.73 |
| Malott | 71% | $0.73 | $0.28 |
Based on current figures, it looks like prediction market analysts have Malott down to continue his winning streak with ease. However, as we said, Burns is a professional who has been in these scenarios before. If Burns gains early control on the floor, it could be lights out for Malott before they reach the second or third. This one really is much closer than Kalshi markets may suggest – a great time to consider an entry. Checke the banners here to go straight to Kalshi and check the available markets.
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