Golf fans across the country will be tuning in this weekend as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and other pros tee off at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. While much of the prediction exchange trading volume is focused on who will win the major, Kalshi is experiencing elevated activity in secondary markets such as Hole-in-One and Make the Cut forecasts.
Regardless of who you’re rooting for, there are numerous trades available for anyone who has a Kalshi account. Below, we’ll take a look at who’s favored to win, and what forecasters are saying about the chances of a Hole-in-One being made this weekend.
With less than 24 hours before the action begins, Scottie Scheffler is the frontrunner for who will win the 2026 US Open. Scheffler, a native of Dallas, Texas, is competing to capture golf’s Grand Slam – and the US Open is the only major tournament remaining for him to achieve that feat.
We’re going with Scheffler at 14¢ per contract, but Rory McIlroy at 6.8¢ is also a winning trade, in our view. Both players are playing great golf so far this year, with the European star having successfully defended his Masters title back in April. Despite there being a massive amount of trading volume on the winner so far on Kalshi (over $80 million), there’s still a great chance that prediction market percentages will fluctuate before tomorrow’s tee off times due to how much interest is being generated for the winner’s market.
Here’s an updated list of the Top 5 most likely golfers to win the 2026 US Open, according to current Kalshi trends:
We’re also picking Rory McIlroy to be the “top European golfer” in the tournament once it ends on Sunday. You can buy that trade for 16¢ if you think he’ll outperform Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick.
Tee times have been released for tomorrow and it appears that Scottie Scheffler will start his day at the 1st Hole, while McIlroy, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tommy Fleetwood will all begin at Hole 10. Alternating the starting holes for players allows more tee times to take place, which should keep the action on schedule during Day 1 – barring any unforeseen weather delays.
Speaking of the weather, players should consider themselves lucky that temperature will be mild throughout the weekend, with lows in the 60s and highs only getting up to 75 degrees. With that said, there will be overcast skies along with 80%-90% humidity and a strong chance of rain on each day the tournament is played. Tomorrow in particular is likely to see, at the very least, some drizzle if not sporadic patches of precipitation.
For traders looking for action outside of the traditional “winner” and “make the cut” markets, the contract price on “yes” for a Hole-in-One this weekend is sitting at 42¢. As with all winning contracts, this market will resolve at $1 per contract if one or more players get an eagle on a par 3 (or an albatross on a par 4).
Those looking for a higher potential payout can opt for “2 or more” Hole-in-One shots over the course of this weekend’s US Open for 15¢ per contract. These markets include all 156 players who enter the tournament, and extend to any playoff action.
If you’re not in the Southampton area and want to watch the action, the USOpen.com website is a great resource. You can sign-up for free and then login for live coverage of select players, but you’ll need to be physically located within the continental United States to access the streams. For everyone else, you can catch all of NBC’s coverage by purchasing a premium Peacock subscription.
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