The US PGA Championship begins this week at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. Several names are in contention but Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, the world number one and two, are out in front.
As the tee off draws closer, we’ve considered the chances of Scheffler and McIlroy lifting the trophy in detail. Plus, with help from Kalshi, we’ve considered the other top competitors in turn and weighed up each one’s chances on the distinctive Aronimink course. Read on for more detail and a guide on locking in your trade on this market.
Scottie Scheffler comes to Aronimink as the defending champion and the current world number one. He’s had a good season so far in 2026 and is the head and shoulders favorite to win the PGA Championship at Kalshi. However, with a 17% chance of winning, he’s far from a foregone conclusion, and many golf fans are questioning whether his gameplay will suit the curves and undulations of the Aronimink course.
Despite being at the top of golf rankings for so many years, Scheffler has only won the PGA Championship event three times in nine starts. So, while his numbers look good, it’s also worth considering alternatives when making your trades.
Masters Champion and World Number Two, Rory McIlroy would seem to be the biggest competition to Scheffler’s chances of victory. He won the event in some style in 2012, lapping the field by a huge eight strokes, and in 2014. He’s also one of the very few names on the tour to have beaten Scheffler. After a disappointing T19 performance at Quail Hollow, McIlroy enters the PGA Championship with a renewed sense of purpose. But, will the course suit his style?
Currently, Scheffler and McIlroy hold the largest numbers for this market at Kalshi. Scheffler has a 17% chance of lifting the trophy, while McIlroy is wavering around 9%, having experienced a small drop in his chances. Let’s take a look at the numbers for the other possible winners:
World number three Cameron Young will definitely be in the mix come the first round at Aronimink. He has a 6.5% chance of winning this event at Kalshi but impressive numbers this season suggest his chances could be stronger. He has had many top-10 paydays and ranks second in Strokes Gained: Total in 2026.
Two-time major winner Jon Rahm has a 6% chance of winning the PGA Championship according to traders at Kalshi. He hasn’t reached a podium since the 2023 Open Championship in Liverpool but has been making some impressive shots (including an albatross on the LIV Golf Tour).
Brit Fitzpatrick is world number four and has made his best start to a PGA Tour ever, with three wins out of five starts and prize money of over $10 million already banked. 2022 was widely considered his best year, but fans feel he could be entering a Renaissance. He was runner-up to Cameron Young in The Player’s Championship in March and defeated Scheffler at the RBC Heritage.
Fitzpatrick has 3.2% chance of success on Kalshi, but it’s thought that the need for precision at Aronimink could suit Fitzpatrick’s game, who is in the top six for accuracy.
There’s always the chance of a shock winner but, with a field of players this strong, there doesn’t seem to be much chance of the trophy going outside the top ten. The Aronimink course itself plays a part in this. Designed by Donald Ross, Aronimink is a complex proposition with fairways containing tricky elevation changes. It’s a par 70 measuring 7,400 yards and emphasizes precision rather than force.
At Kalshi, you can trade on this market at any time before the end of the tournament but we’d recommend making your choice early. To do so, just click on our links to go directly to the Kalshi site. Confirm that you meet the eligibility criteria and register for a new account, being sure to look out for any promotions open to new players along the way.
Once you’re logged in, you’ll find that golf is just one of the many sports prediction markets available and covers a wide diversity of tournaments and events. Scale in on the PGA Championship to load up the options.
In the table below, we’ve outlined the latest market prices for McIlroy, Scheffler and other possible winners, plus their chances of winning. These are correct at time of writing but are subject to sudden change:
| Player | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 17% | 17¢ | 84¢ |
| Rory McIlroy | 8.9% | 9¢ | 91.9¢ |
| Cameron Young | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.7¢ |
| Jon Rahm | 6% | 6¢ | 94.5¢ |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.8% | 4.8¢ | 95.3¢ |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 3.2% | 3.2¢ | 96.9¢ |
The first round of the PGA Championship begins on Thursday 14th May and Scottie Scheffler seems to be the player to beat. However, there are many strong competitors among the top ten and, with a course that rewards accuracy, it may be that some underrated players have a shot.
If you’re ready to make your trade on this market, Kalshi is a great pick. Signing up is easy and you can adjust your trades in seconds as we head deeper into the competition. Follow the links on our banners to sign up for an account and make your trade today.
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