The Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role, colloquially called the Oscar’s Best Actor Award, is a tight race between Timothee Chalamet, Michael B. Jordan, and Leonardo DiCaprio, and it’s only getting tighter by the second.
Chalamet’s outstanding performance in Marty Supreme and his Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice awards make him a top contender; Michael B. Jordan pulled one of the most complex performances of his career in Sinners; and Leonardo DiCaprio brings his wealth of experience and a familiar face. Who goes home with the plaque? Here’s how it’s trading on prediction market sites.
The Best Actor award at the 2026 Oscars, officially “The Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role,” has five official nominees: Michael B. Jordan, Timothee Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Wagner Moura, and Ethan Hawke.
Michael Jordan received a nomination for his work in Sinners; Timothee Chalamet, for Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, for One Battle After Another; Wagner Moura, for The Secret Agent; and Ethan Hawke, for Blue Moon.
You can buy event contracts on the chances of each nominee on Crypto.com, with Timothee Chalamet currently leading the pack with a 52% implied probability of winning. The following section will analyze each actor’s prospects per Crypto.com’s projections.
Crypto.com is focusing on Timothee Chalamet, Michael B. Jordan, and Leonardo DiCaprio as top contenders for the prize, with the ‘Yes’ contract for the three actors trading at 52¢, 42¢, and 12¢, respectively. Here’s how each actor’s chances compare:
Timothee Chalamet remains the top contender for the Best Actor award at the 2026 Oscars, based on his role as Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme, which helped him secure the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards for Best Actor.
With this fiery trend, he’s seen as the frontrunner for the Oscar Best Actor award, with Crypto.com fixing his implied probability of winning at 52%, higher than Michael B. Jordan’s at 42%.
It’s not all cut and dried, however, as a different actor might pull an upset; we saw something similar when Anthony Hopkins snatched the Oscar from Chadwick Boseman, even after the latter swept the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards.
If Chalamet is to be wary of any competition going into the Oscars, it’s from Michael B. Jordan with his roles in Sinners. The movie itself is enjoying the time of its life among the Oscars’ membership, smashing the record for the most nominations received by a single film in a single year (16).
Michael B. Jordan’s complex role in Sinners, playing identical twins Smoke and Stack, was enough to impress the committee, securing him his first Best Actor nomination in the Academy Awards. If Sinners go on to make a strong showing in this year’s Oscars, Michael Jordan stands a decent chance of going home with Best Actor, and Crypto.com agrees with this, pricing him at 42%.
Leonardo DiCaprio’s role as Bob Ferguson in One Battle After Another is Oscar-worthy, although there’s fiery competition this year. This isn’t DiCaprio’s first rodeo; he’s the only one of the three top contenders with an Oscar. With Crypto.com putting his implied probability at 12%, he’s not exactly the brightest candidate, but could his experience help him snag another plaque?
Other top contenders for Best Actor at the 96th Oscars include Wagner Moura (10%) and Ethan Hawke (7%) for The Secret Agent and Blue Moon, respectively. They don’t pull as much clout as Chalamet, Jordan, or DiCaprio, but you simply can’t rule them out just yet.
The Crypto.com market for the Best Actor award at this year’s Oscars can swing either way, reflecting the market’s volatility ahead of the Wednesday event. Here are the latest prediction market movements:
All looks to be done and dusted for Timothée Chalamet, given his preceding award wins, so we’ll likely see his lead over competing actors widen before the event. With more traders convinced Chalamet’s Marty Mauser character is Oscar-worthy, we might see the implied probability grow, putting him ahead of the pack for now.
Michael B. Jordan has always remained a strong contender, and although he doesn’t have a Critics’ Choice Award or a Golden Globe behind him, he has enough, coupled with Sinners’ explosive success, to pull an upset.
A shock winner, like Wagner or Ethan, isn’t the strongest possibility, but we can’t rule them out. Everyone’s focusing on Michael B. Jordan and Timothee Chalamet, but there’s a real possibility of a Wagner or Ethan upset, with these possibilities priced at 10¢ and 7¢ respectively on Crypto.com.
Nearly 9 times out of 10, Timothee Chalamet wins the Oscar, making him the overwhelming favorite going into next week’s awards show. Two factors are crucial here: he’s swept the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice, both of which strongly correlate with the outcome.
This same scenario played out in 2025, 2024, and 2022, so it’s only reasonable to expect a continuation of the same. There’s a strong case for Sinners bagging 16 Academy Awards nominations, but whatever benefit that carries likely wouldn’t trump the massive headstart Timothee Chalamet already enjoys going into the 96th Academy Awards.
Crypto.com is one of the most popular prediction market apps offering the Oscar Best Actor market ahead of the 96th Academy Awards. Here’s how to buy event contracts on your favorites ahead of the official announcement:
Here’s a table showing the current trading prices and implied probabilities on Crypto.com:
| Actor | Implied Probability | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timothee Chalamet | 52% | 52¢ | 57¢ |
| Michael B. Jordan | 42% | 42¢ | 62¢ |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | 12% | 12¢ | 95¢ |
| Wagner Moura | 10% | 10¢ | 97¢ |
| Ethan Hawke | 7% | 7¢ | N/A |
The prices in this table represent what’s currently available on Crypto.com. Note that “Yes” and “No” contract prices may not always add up to $1 due to bid-ask spreads, order book liquidity, and general market movement. Prices on popular contracts also fluctuate rapidly, so there might be slight deviations between quoted and actual figures.
The Academy Awards for Best Actor in a Leading Role remain a contest between Timothee Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan, per traders on prediction market sites like Crypto.com. It’s easy to justify this point of view: Chalamet and Jordan have both played complex roles in movies that excelled last year, making them both deserving of the plaque.
As it stands, Chalamet is the leading contender, as his previous Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards recognitions have typically reliably predicted the Oscars’ Best Actor winner. With him leading on Crypto.com at 52%, we’re about to see if history repeats itself.
If you’d like to participate, you can trade on this market on Crypto.com using the banners on this page.
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