In what has become a month of record-setting events for Kalshi, Thursday night’s 2026 World Cup match between the United States and Turkey attracted over $180 million in trading volume on America’s first-ever federally regulated prediction market. Forecasters are lighting up the trading volume “scoreboard” on Kalshi and putting their weight fully behind their favorite World Cup predictions.
Although the United States lost Thursday night to Turkey by a final score of 3-2, the USMNT is guaranteed to advance to the “Round of 32” phase of the World Cup. It finished Group D action Thursday night in first place with 6 points and now awaits its next competitor.
For now, prediction market sports traders will need to wait a few days to see who the United States men’s soccer team will face in the next round, which will be single-elimination. As of this weekend, all we know for sure is that the United States is scheduled to play its next match at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara on July 1st at 5:00pm local time.
The Google schedule listing of Bosnia and Herzegovina as the USMNT’s next opponent is not necessarily accurate because the Group J matches won’t be decided until late Saturday night (or early Sunday morning) Eastern Time. Therefore, you won’t find an available Kalshi “winners” market for the upcoming USMNT match until Group J action has concluded.
Kalshi forecasters have poured about $600,000,000 into the tournament “winner” market so far, which is extremely impressive given that the 2026 World Cup has yet to enter its single-elimination phase. France is the clear frontrunner now (due to Spain’s lackluster performance against Cabo Verde) and is trading at 19.8¢ per contract on the “yes” option.
Argentina is in second place and has a per-contract cost of 15.9¢ as we approach the weekend, with Spain coming in at third. If you’re still predicting that Spain will win the 2026 World Cup, then the team’s current price of 13.4¢ per contract is a genuine bargain.
The USA and Mexico round out the Top 10 on Kalshi. You can buy a “yes” contract at 4.2¢ for the United States to win it all this year. A “yes” option on Mexico to hoist the golden trophy currently costs 3.3 cents.
Primarily, the teams that have already secured their ticket to the “Round of 32” are waiting to find out who their next opponent will be. It’s not every day that you compete in a soccer tournament that requires you to wait days for the remaining schedule to fill. But then, it’s not every day that you have a soccer tournament that includes 48 total qualifying teams.
If you’re likewise waiting to see who your team will face in the next round and want to get in on the action now, the Kalshi tournament “winner” market is the place to go. Due to its massive trading volume, the published odds should be more accurate than what you might find in a traditional “competing against the house” sportsbook.
However, traders should be mindful that the 2026 World Cup “winner” contracts on Kalshi represent a peer-to-peer market that is subject to change as more trading volume comes in. Six hundred million may seem like a lot (and it is), but the prospect of this market eventually breaking through the $2 billion trading volume mark is looking more likely with each passing day. If that indeed occurs, then the $600,000,000 in current trading volume represents a mere fraction of the cumulative total once the market closes on July 19th.
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