We’re here to tell you all about weather prediction markets. So that if you ever wanted to predict anything from the temperature to rainfall and even hurricanes, you’ll know the best ways of doing it.
We’ll start by explaining why the climate is such a hot topic at prediction markets sites, and reveal three of the best brands for making your weather-related predictions. Plus you’ll get walkthrough guides for using these sites and we’ll even give you some tips to help you guess future weather patterns with a little more precision.
People have been trying to predict the weather for centuries, but it’s only recently that you’ve been able to trade contracts on what the weather’s going to do next. This is because the weather and climate are some of the biggest topics that you can now find at those prediction markets sites that are taking over the nation.
While many people go to these sites to make their predictions on who’ll win the Super Bowl or even who the next US president will be, making predictions on things like the day’s highest temperature is also proving to be pretty popular.
Not that weather predictions markets are just about temperature, as you may even be able to guess things like when it’ll rain or even when a tornado will next hit. Here are just some examples of the kinds of weather prediction markets that you might come across:
Probably the most popular kind of weather prediction market. Here you can guess the highest or lowest temperatures in various locations each day, month or year. Plus there’s be predictions for things like whether it’s the hottest year or where in the US will have the highest temperature.
These can cover everything from whether it’ll rain in Seattle today to whether it’ll snow in New York City in November. You may also be able to make your predictions on the amount of rainfall there is and so on.
Expect to be able to predict how many tornadoes and hurricanes there’ll be this month, and you may even be able to guess the name of the next hurricane. Interestingly some prediction markets brands will also lump in other natural disasters here so that you can try and guess where and how big the next earthquake or volcano will be.
Climate change is obviously a very hot topic at the moment, and you’ll be able to predict things like whether this is the hottest year on record, and even guess the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and how much sea ice is melting. Plus with the ability to predict how various countries are failing to meet their climate pledges, it should paint a suitably bleak picture of the future.
You might find that some prediction markets sites will even include pandemics in with their weather event contracts. So if you fancy making your predictions about the next outbreaks of Covid, ebola or even how many flu hospitalizations there’ll be, then you could find exactly what you’re looking for at any of our recommended brands.
We realize that some people reading this might be new to the whole prediction markets phenomenon. So let’s have a quick overview of how you can make a prediction on the weather and then buy and sell an event contract for that prediction. Here’s what you need to know:
So why should you try to predict the weather rather than do something a bit lighter like trade one of those pop culture prediction markets? Well here are the main pros and cons of taking the weather prediction approach:
We took a look at the best prediction markets sites to see who offers you the best weather-related event contracts. This meant seeing who gives you the broadest range of ways for making your climate predictions as well as a good all-round service in terms of things like customer support, usability payment methods and so on. As such, we’re pretty sure that the following brands will give you a superior way to make your weather predictions:
| Prediction markets brand | Range of weather prediction markets |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | Highest temperature, lowest temperature, number of tornadoes, number of hurricanes, rainfall, monthly temperature increase, water elevation, hottest year, exceptional drought, hurricane names, volcanic eruptions, climate goals met, CO2 atmospheric concentration |
| Polymarket | Highest temperature, lowest temperature, record temperature, rainfall, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, natural disasters, sea ice extent, pandemics, vaccines |
| Crypto.com | Hottest year ranking |
It makes sense that the largest prediction markets brand in the US would give you perhaps the broadest range of weather prediction markets. So what you get here is the ability to make your predictions on the highest and lowest temperatures that day in lots of US cities, and then there are plenty more weather predictions for things like whether it’s going to be the hottest year, whether it’ll rain in New York and so on.
Naturally, Kalshi goes beyond this to include a few more interesting things like predictions for how many tornadoes and hurricanes there’ll be this month. Plus you can even do things like guess the name of the next hurricane or predict whether a ‘super volcano’ will happen this year.
There are also some weather predictions with a political twist, such as whether certain countries will hit their climate targets and you can even predict the atmospheric CO2 concentration to see how far they have to go. All nicely wrapped up in a user-friendly site with everything that you should be looking for in a prediction markets brand.
Since Polymarket gained access to the US in late 2025, it has proven to be more than capable of letting you trade on plenty of the more unusual prediction markets. This is something that you’ll see in the brand’s coverage of weather predictions, where you can do things like predict the highest and lowest temperatures in lots of cities around the world, as well as the US.
Polymarket also is capable of giving you plenty of ways to predict all manner of natural disasters ranging from hurricanes and tornadoes to volcanoes and even if there will be a ‘mega earthquake’ this year.
We’re not sure how pandemics fit into the weather topic, but Polymarket has lots of these gruesome predictions for things like whether Covid will make a reappearance to livestock diseases and plenty of other nasty things. Plus with predictions for how fast the sea ice is melting, it all compounds the point that prediction markets sites can really get you thinking.
It’s fair to say that Crypto.com doesn’t offer you the largest range of prediction markets for the climate, but you’ll still be able to do things like predict where this year will rank among the hottest years on record. As such, it’s probably a good option for anyone who’s new to the prediction markets concept as they won’t get sidetracked by some of the weirder climate-related event contracts.
Everything else about Crypto.com is as it should be with nicely user-friendly apps and a website, and you have to remember that the whole thing is part of one of the biggest crypto exchanges on the planet. So if you like using cryptocurrencies and like to watch weather forecasts, then be sure to give Crypto.com a try.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Never used a prediction markets site before? No problem, as here is a speedy guide that’ll show you how you can sign up and make your first weather predictions:
Tap on any of the links for the approved prediction markets sites in the banners of this page to launch the website from your browser
Register your account which can usually be done by filling in the registration form with some pieces of personal information such as your name, email address and date of birth
Once you’ve done this, you should be able to log into your account and then verify your identity by producing the required documentation
Now you can add some funds to your account by making a deposit with one of the payment providers (these usually include anything from cards and ewallets through to bank transfers and cryptocurrencies)
From here, you can navigate to the prediction markets lobby and click on the tab that’ll say something like Climate or Weather
Browse the markets and then click on the event contract that matches your own prediction
Enter in how many of that weather-related event contract you want to purchase and make your trade
Now you should see that the contract has been added to your portfolio, and you can watch as its value changes in correspondence to the actual weather and other people’s trading. Remember that you don’t have to keep your contract until the event has settled, as you can attempt to sell it early for a profit or even before things get too bad.
OK, we realize that predicting the weather isn’t exactly easy, as even the greatest minds in history like John von Neumann have tried and failed at this. However, we believe that we can at least try and stop you making too many newbie errors by following these simple tips:
Unless you have some god-like abilities, you simply aren’t going to be able to predict when things like earthquakes and volcanoes are going to happen. Sure, you can keep your eye on things like seismometers, but even this leaves you open to a huge amount of risk. So best make your predictions on things like temperature and rainfall unless you like throwing away your money.
It’s also essential that you set a sensible budget of how much you are willing to lose before you start trading weather contracts. Doing so should mean that you can take the occasional hit without it becoming dangerous. The good news is that each of our recommended prediction markets sites should give you access to a variety of responsible trading tools that you can use to keep your predictions in check.
It’s probably best not to head off too far into the future when making your weather predictions. After all, the more long-range your predictions, the more scope there is for all manner of random weather events. Best keep things closer to the here and now as there’ll be less chance of there being something seriously weird happening with the weather. Just another reason why making predictions on today’s weather is one of the most popular climate markets.
There’s plenty to be gained from watching the weather forecasts from a variety of sources. By pooling in the forecasts from multiple areas, it should hopefully build up a solid picture of what’s most likely to happen next rather than just sticking with one forecast. Just remember that there’s always a healthy margin of error for even the most dedicated of weather forecasts, so you should always prepare for the unexpected.
By now you will understand that there’s plenty of fun to be had in making your weather predictions. Whether you’re guessing today’s top temperature in your home city or are predicting how many hurricanes will hit the East Coast this year, it should all make watching the weather forecast a little more interesting.
Just remember that nobody has actually figured out how to precisely predict the weather just yet, and therefore you will need to be careful to trade responsibly. But as long as you remember that, you should be good to hit any of the links for the approved prediction markets brands in the banners of this page to register your account and start trading.
You will usually have to be at least 18 years old to sign up to a prediction markets site. This means having to verify your identity upon signing up by providing some form of government-issued photo ID such as your driver’s license or passport.
Yes, there are plenty of prediction market apps that you can download to your iOS or Android device that’ll let you trade weather-related event contracts. Plus each of the prediction markets brands listed in this guide have mobile-friendly sites that you can use from the browser of your smartphone or tablet.
Because we have been careful to only include those prediction markets brands that are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. As such, you can sign up to each of these sites knowing that they’ll give you a fair and secure way to trade, and that you’ll get protection against things like fraud and price manipulation.
No, there is no direct correlation between the weather and the stock market. A 2020 study looked into this and debunked the theory that more sunshine produces higher stock returns.
You should be able to as most prediction markets brands are available in all 50 states. Just note that there are some exceptions such as the fact that you cannot trade any markets at Crypto.com from the states of New York or Arizona.
Loading …
