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Dan Shanoff writes a weekly college football column for Deadspin. Email him to let him know what you think.
Here is the flimsiest argument I have heard about how (and where) to value a team right now:
"Because They're Unbeaten."
Why can't I buy it? Because in addition to totally discounting reasonable factors like, oh, strength of schedule, it is so inconsistently applied, by pollsters and fans alike.
Why is Ohio State No. 1? Because they're unbeaten. Not because they have played a challenging schedule so far. Not because they have any "signature" wins over great (or even very good) teams. But, let's all agree: Because they have the biggest brand name among the five remaining unbeaten teams.
Why is Boston College No. 2? Because they're unbeaten. Their early-season wins over Georgia Tech and Wake Forest just aren't that impressive a month later. Let's agree why they are the consensus No. 2: Because human pollsters remember Doug Flutie.
(The BCS computers now rank B.C. ahead of Ohio State. Then again, the computers rank one-loss LSU ahead of Ohio State, too. Be honest: Does anyone really doubt that on a neutral field, the Tigers wouldn't throttle both? But I digress...)
OK, so if you buy the "Because They're Unbeaten" thing, then how does that explain how Arizona State (ranked 4th by BCS computers) is ranked 7th/8th by the BCS' human pollsters and 7th by the AP?
And if you're one of the group who support the "Tyranny of the Unbeaten," why is undefeated Kansas ranked 9th in the BCS and even worse (as crappy as 12th) by the human pollsters?
If "unbeaten" matters so much, how does one-loss Oklahoma rank 4th across all three major human polls (AP, Harris, Coaches), even after the Sooners lost at Colorado, where the Jayhawks just WON this past weekend? (Let's not even talk about Oklahoma's escape Saturday at mighty 1-7 Iowa State.)
I'm not suggesting that Kansas should be in the Top 4, simply because KU is unbeaten. It's precisely the opposite: "Unbeaten" must be taken in context of the season, which is generally provided by the soulless computers, while we frail humans can't help but see "Ohio State" and think "Oh, if I HAVE to pick an undefeated team and the other unbeaten choices are Flutie, Pac-10 and a basketball school, then the Buckeyes MUST be No. 1."
I'm not immune: Once you get more than halfway through the season, "And-Oh" is the sultriest come-on in college football. That's why I've got 4 of the unbeatens in the Top 7 of my BlogPoll ballot this week. Because, confirming what so many Ohio State fans emailed me last week, I suck.
I have that, even though I'm pretty convinced that every team in the Top 20 with one loss (and most of the teams with two losses) could beat any of the remaining unbeaten teams on a neutral field. Again, the reason I don't reflect this in my own BlogPoll ballot is: Because I suck.
I'm with Sunday Morning QB's Matt Hinton: Strength of schedule should matter. Big wins over those strong teams should matter. That's why, if the season ended today and we applied the latest BCS computer ranking, BC would get smoked by one-loss LSU for the national title — and Ohio State would be playing Arizona State in the Rose Bowl, with nothing on the line except both teams would be going for their first meaningful win of the year.
Meanwhile, for all the jokes about the Jayhawks' strength of schedule, Kansas has the closest thing to a quality win out of any of them (at Kansas State). That's why B.C.'s game at Virginia Tech on Thursday is so huge: If the Eagles win, it would be "signature win" legitimacy that eclipses any other "big win" of the Top 10 BCS contenders.
And that's why if "because they're unbeaten" simply reflected how title-worthy a team was, Boise State would be the reigning national champ. (I'd take last season's Broncos over any of the five unbeatens this season, too.)
More from This Weekend: There's no way to put this delicately: LSU's Les Miles has bigger balls than any other coach in college football, and the only reason I'd think he wouldn't be at Michigan next season is that they can't deal with a coach who has such a huge pair.
Anyone out there lose (or win) money because Kentucky, a 7-point underdog, lost by 8 after not kicking that extra-point after their game-ending TD as time expired, which would have forced a push.
In a season of shocking upsets, may I nominate Vanderbilt beating BCS formula-favorite South Carolina in Columbia, while beating Steve Spurrier for the first time ever (holding him to six points, no less). No wonder Spurrier was in the mood to crap on Ohio State...
OK, I think it's safe to say that Notre Dame has finally hit rock bottom. (OK, maybe a home loss to the service academies. OK, no: A home loss to Duke. That would do it.) Amazingly, even as bad as they suck, you know there are probably two dozen bowl games out there that would give them an invite if they could...
For the rest of the season, I propose we relegate Minnesota to 1-AA and promote North Dakota State into he Big Ten.
This Week's BlogPoll Top 10: As I mentioned above, I lack all conviction to walk the talk. I am beaten down by the Tyranny of the Unbeaten. My final BlogPoll ballot version is due Tuesday night; maybe I'll find the strength before then. (You know it's an all-time great season in college football when your own existing finely honed sense of self-loathing can be enhanced even more by the process of filling out an effing Top 25 ballot.)
1. Ohio State
I can't look myself in the mirror.
2. Boston College
Season made or broken in Blacksburg.
3. LSU
Sure are living dangerously.
4. Oregon
Game of Their Year: Hosting USC.
5. West Virginia
Lurking in shallow 1-loss pool.
6. Kansas
Did what Oklahoma couldn't.
7. Arizona State
Time to start proving it.
8. Virginia Tech
One W over BC from legitimacy.
9. South Florida
Still can point to two huge wins.
10. Florida
Turning into last year's LSU.
Click here for my complete ballot. I am happy to acknowledge that the entire thing is a mess, particularly after No. 10 (if, wading through the morass that is 1-10, you can believe that even possible).
Looking Ahead to Next Saturday:
With only five unbeatens left, the focus turns to how many will stay that way (next week, up to four could fall) — and the jockeying among the best 1-loss teams (Oregon, LSU, West Virginia, VA Tech, Oklahoma) to rack up impressive "quality" wins (or trying to avoid unimpressive unquality wins... I'm talking to you, Oklahoma fans).
Boston College at Virginia Tech (Thursday): Coming off my pick that USF would lose last Thursday at Rutgers, I'll double down.
Pick: Virginia Tech.
Ohio State at Penn State: Can OSU fans really look deep down and claim that their team is the BEST in the country? Based on WHAT, exactly?
Pick: Ohio State.
Cal at Arizona State: So Cal goes from BCS lock 10 days ago to mere spoiler to the Sun Devils' season. Sucks to be them.
Pick: Cal.
Kansas at Texas A&M: OK, it's been fun, but it's just about time for the Jayhawks' ride to end, isn't it?
Pick: Texas A&M.
USC at Oregon: Suddenly, the winner of this game could very well earn the inside track on being the top-ranked 1-loss team in the BCS.
Pick: Oregon.
West Virginia at Rutgers: Nothing would avenge WVU ruining Rutgers' Cinderella season a year ago like Rutgers KO'ing the 'Eers BCS hopes.
Pick: WVU
Florida at Georgia: Only because it's the best nickname of any regular season game in sports: "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party."
Pick: Florida
As usual, direct any comments, questions or complaints to danshanoff-[at]-gmail-[dot]-[com].
Comments
Because they have the biggest brand name among the five remaining unbeaten teams
Mike Cooper agrees.
If BC's jerseys said "Miami" or "Florida State" on them, people wouldn't be giving them shit for not having the audacity to lose yet. I'm getting pretty sick of it.
But I will agree, Thursday night is a big "prove it" game for both teams.
Please god, let VT win.
I can't handle a world where BC football is relevant again.
Speaking of the World's Largest Outdoor cocktail party, my bachelor party is this weekend in Jacksonville for the game. I've never been. Anyone have any good recs for establishments to partake in general debauchery (bars and boobs most preferably)?
So then, what are the dimensions on Mrs. Miles cheeks? Can we get a measurement?
What about Tebow's injury, Dan?
I'll be in attendance at the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party (suck it Michael Adams). Any one else going?
"World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party."
Michael L. Slive is on Line 1 and would like a word with you, Mr. Shanoff.
Temple is on a three-game winning streak. TEMPLE IS ON A THREE-GAME WINNING STREAK!!
College Football polls are responsible for the biggest amount of bitching and moaning and biased arguments and know-it-alls. In my humble opinion, either leave it entirely up to the computers to determine the standings or come up with a different scheme that doesn't feature so much douchebaggery.
I can already predict this year there will be at least 3 or 4 teams' fanbases complaining about not making it to the title game.
@Matt_T:
see my post just above you at 1:19
Actually, OSU is number one because we are awesome.
@Brazil Thrill: There would be a noticable increase in unemployment as thousands of "experts" from ESPN, CBS, etc. suddenly found themselves without purpose if the computers took over the rankings.
@MitchKayak: Amen to that, sir.
Fuck BC. Seriously. And it's not just because I went to BU. I swear. I SWEAR.
OK, that's why.
@TomahawkFlop: I'm staying in St. Simon's for the weekend, I'll just be in Jax on gameday. The Landing is where the huge party is, booze all over the place, live music etc etc. That's probably your best bet.
I'm rooting for a Hawaii/Kansas national championship game.
Who cares what the rankings are now? All of the unbeatens have to play someone before the end of the year. Three of the four have tough ones this week (@VaTech, Cal, @PSU). Penn State might not be ranked as highly as VaTech, but if there's a bigger homefield advantage in college football than what Penn State had the last time OSU came to Beaver Stadium at night (not coincidentally OSU's last conference loss), I certainly haven't seen it.
@Matt_T:
We're staying at the Hyatt just down from The Landing. From who I've talked to The Landing is a good start.
@Pennington_Noodlearm_Enthusiast: Oh you guys can have the Beanpot again this year if it'll cheer you up.
Not that you weren't going to win it anyway....
Based on WHAT, exactly?
The number one in the country ranking, maybe?
To the fans of schools who schedule cupcake opponents all year just so they can complain about their lack of BCS respect despite a perfect or near-perfect record: Cry
@Yinka Double Dare: This PSU game scares me. Big time. PSU could field players from Loyola Maramount's football team and still give the Buckeyes a game at Beaver Stadium. Perhaps our previous schedule of Kent State, Akron and Youngstown St. has not prepared us well for a night game at PSU...
The Subcommandante is coming for you, Shanoff.
Les Miles doesn't have balls. He's a moron. The move just happened to work out.
Dan's just hoping for a way to get Florida back in the title game.
so if OSU loses this weekend, then what?
Ohio State should hang their head in shame because no one on their schedule is good this year. Yes, they've statistically blown out everyone they've played (including last week, which would've been 24-3 if not for two TO's deep in their own half).
If you don't play anyone good, even if you blow them out, the default assumption should be that you aren't as good as the teams with tougher schedules. "Unproven" = assume the worst.
So, the SEC is pretty much a pro conference at this point, right?
Actually - I think that Wake win looks better a month later. They're 4-2 and 3-1 in the ACC.
Still - BC loses to either VT or Clemson (because Clemson shows up when they're underdogs).
The best debate in this unbeaten thing right now is to ask why Ohio State's undefeated record looks any better than Kansas'. They've both played pretty crappy schedules. AZ State loses this weekend, Ohio State loses at Michigan, I think Kansas lasts until the Mizzou game, though.
Who in the hell is sucking off this flash-in-the-pan Ohio State team? No track record, no tradition, no experience as a national powerhouse...disgusting.
To the 1 loss teams: Hey...win all of your games.
i am rather pissed i won't be in Happy Valley this weekend. but i will be extremely drunk and celebrating in a bar that i will pretend is Beaver Stadium.
WE ARE... PENN STATE
@Dan Shanoff:
Why do you think the Michigan job will be open? They'll probably be coming off a Rose Bowl year. Yep, that's how awful the Big 10 is this season.
I say Carr sticks around for a few more years and then is replaced by Crazy Jim Harbaugh.
Tyranny of the Unbeaten
I thought this would be a diatribe against Janet Jackson's most recent album. My bad.
@Pennington_Noodlearm_Enthusiast: Hear, hear (class of '94).
We'll always have the Beanpot.
@MitchKayak: A Boston College BCS triumph is the only Boston sports triumph that I'll abide. Only because the head coach is an alumnus of the same high school as I am.
The rest -- Sawkxs, Celts, Pats -- can suck a big one.
I don't think it's fair that everyone is tearing apart OSU's schedule, I mean it isn't our fault everyone else is shitty this year. We don't plan to have weak schedules, look at Texas the past two years and USC, Miami, Alabama and Va Tech coming up on the schedule over the next few years.
That being said, LSU would violate us in ways I don't want to think about if we ended up playing them.
Congrats Shanoff. You just found a way to make the BCS MORE confusing
Shanoff - actually BC has the best win of the unbeatens... against BCS #25 Wake. Purdue and KSU are well down the list.
Shanoff- you won't have to worry about that argument after this weekend for Ohio State
GO PSU!
Ohio St. completely shut down MSU's offense, which has been ridiculous this season. Everyone was saying the same things about OSU the season they went in and tore up Miami (not to mention McGahee's leg).
Based on WHAT exactly?
Sweater Vests > Ski Vests
Wait, I thought the college football season was one big playoff?
Shanoff, are you ready to admit that your theory sucks?
Even worse than 'the tyranny of the unbeatens' is 'the tyranny of the people who insist on writing long columns about the injustice of BCS rankings the third week they're released and when they don't have any bearing on anything'.
Yeah, I hate that.
The BCS rankings are just an excuse to keep college football relevant and in the media during the NFL season and baseball playoffs. It's also a means to keep their methodology somewhat transparent.
For BC, all the talk of where we're ranked is silly unless we're undefeated Friday morning. Then I'll talk about how much we'd lose to LSU by. (I'm thinking 37-17.)
To summarize... the computer sucks, the pollsters suck, the computer is the best, the pollsters are the best, OSU sucks, OSU rules, Les Miles has long balls, Florida is the best, Florida is the best, Tim Tebow will eat your children.
VT is 13-2 on Thursday nights....the two losses?
Boston College
@Johnny Blackshoe: Amen.
@Shawon-O-Meter: True.
I don't get why people get into such a fit this early in the BCS rankings. Is BC overrated? Maybe. If they are, they lose one or two games (or... yipes, more) and they're no longer ranked #2. End of argument.
But if they keep winning, they deserve to be there.
@xhack: Because everyone hates their jobs and has nothing better to talk about. I haven't seen too many preseason NBA posts up in these parts.
@Johnny Blackshoe:
Wait, you mean the guy who wrote this is AGAINST a playoff? So, not only should it count against you if your conference and OOC opponents are in a down year (anyone remember when U-Dub was good? 'Cause that's when this game was scheduled), but you shouldn't be able to do anything about it?