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Dan Shanoff writes a weekly college football column for Deadspin. Email him to let him know what you think.
The wildest — and best — college football season in modern history is down to a simple set of "ifs":
If Missouri beats Oklahoma, Mizzou will be in the national title game and no one will have a gripe.
If West Virginia beats Pitt, WVU will be in the national title game and no one (outside of Ohio) will have a gripe.
If Mizzou loses, Ohio State will be in the national title game and no one (outside of Kansas) will have a gripe.
If BOTH Missouri and West Virginia lose... well, that's just not happening.
Did you see what West Virginia did to the next-best team in their conference, when WVU realized they had to impress the nation? They hung 66 on them.
They ran up the score, because they knew they had to, in order to silence any doubt spread from, say, Columbus. Those 'Eers are one cut-throat bunch of s.o.b.'s; they ain't losing to Dave Wannstedt with a trip to the national championship game on the line.
All this clarity thanks to LSU, who a week ago I couldn't even fathom losing, losing. Not just losing, but losing at home to a 4-loss, one-man team. (Now, that one man happened to put on what I considered to be arguably the greatest individual performance in college football in the last decade. But, still: Just one guy, visiting Baton Rouge, against the No. 1 team in the country.)
Here's the thing that defies the week-in, week-out insanity of the regular season that sadly ends this coming Saturday: There is really no controversy to its conclusion.
Missouri-West Virginia? Sure, it sounds a little strange, but I'll take a championship game with two of the most exciting offenses and an over-under of 90 combined points. No debate.
West Virginia-Ohio State? Sure, OSU would back their way in, but what would be a more fitting end to this season than to see the regular season's last No. 1 team lose in the final game? No debate.
What's that? What happens when I'm totally wrong — as I was about LSU a week ago? When Mizzou and West Virginia BOTH lose? When we're left with Ohio State and a scrum between a half-dozen (barely) worthy teams that would cap what has otherwise been a blissfully anarchy-fueled season?
It all depends on which team is elevated to the No. 2 spot. They all have their flaws. For the sake of the exercise, let's project Ohio State versus...
Georgia: If you want to pick the next-best team.
BUT: Didn't even play for its conference title.
Oklahoma: If you want the team that beat No. 1.
BUT: Lost to not one but TWO unranked teams.
Kansas: If you want the next-best 1-loss team.
BUT: Didn't even play for its conference title.
LSU: If you want to give a team a 3rd chance.
BUT: Couldn't win at home when it mattered most.
USC: If you want the biggest "name" available.
BUT: Stanford. 41-point underdog. In L.A.
Florida: If you want to see Ohio State lose the game.
BUT: 3 losses?! Ha: That's ludicrous, even for me.
Hawaii: If you want the nation's only unbeaten team.
BUT: It would make a mockery of the sport.
More Notes from This Weekend: Although we should agree that Hawaii is not one of the Top 12 teams, I really like seeing a non-BCS team crash the BCS cabal ... After last week's debate over Michigan, can we all agree that Nebraska is not among the Top 5 coaching jobs in college football? ... I can't see how Texas A&M fans will be enthusiastic about Mike Sherman ... Why should the Heisman ceremony be forced to leave one of the Top 4 (McFadden, Tebow, Daniel, White) at home? Expand the invites to "However many are worthy" ... This week's "Notre Dame should have hired": Sylvester Croom ...
Bowl Clusterf*** Series Update: Who will get the coveted (and lucrative) "at-large" BCS bowl invites? If Hawaii can beat Washington, they are a lock for an invite through the non-BCS "Top 12" clause. Meanwhile, if Ohio State DOES go to the national-title game, will the Rose Bowl have the moxie to pick Illinois as the replacement, maintaining the integrity of the Rose's traditional "Pac-10/Big Ten" orientation?
This Week's Bandwagon: Defending conference-title games. Sure, they can wreck your chances at playing for the national title at the last minute (see Missouri if they lose to Oklahoma), but here is the flip side:
If Ohio State was playing in a Big Ten championship game this coming weekend, even in a down year for the conference, they wouldn't have to scoreboard-watch from home, trading in "scarlet and grey" for "crimson and cream." They likely would have given both West Virginia and Missouri a legit challenge.
Sure, if Missouri loses and Ohio State backs into a national-title appearance, it seems like a winning strategy to have their season end two weeks before everyone else. But, otherwise, it's a lost opportunity for Ohio State and the Big Ten.
This Week's BlogPoll Ballot Top 10
1. Missouri
Admit you NEVER saw this coming.
2. West Virginia
Pat White is Tebow's "Mini-Me."
3. Ohio State
Dropping the "S" to root for OU.
4. Kansas
KU could beat the Buckeyes, I think.
5. Georgia
SEC's best not playing for SEC title.
6. LSU
Fool me twice: Shame on me.
7. Virginia Tech
ACC's best? Eh: Nothing to brag about.
8. Florida
Where was this dominance in October?
9. USC
Still lost at home to Stanford.
10. Illinois
Say it: 2008 Rose Bowl.
Click here for my complete BlogPoll ballot.
This Week's Games to Watch:
Missouri vs. Oklahoma: (Big 12 C.G.) Much as I'd like to see yet another No. 1 lose, "Mizzou playing for a national title" is crazy enough, thanks.
Pick: Missouri
Pitt at West Virginia: Prep your couches early for the post-game pyrotechnics show.
Pick: West Virginia
LSU vs. Tennessee: (SEC C.G.) This went from LSU's BCS coronation to a debate whether the best team in the SEC is watching this game from home.
Pick: LSU
Virginia Tech vs. BC: (ACC C.G.) There will be no miraculous Matt Ryan comebacks this time. The BCS was the Hokies' destiny.
Pick: VT
UCLA at USC: Somehow, I think that USC won't choke away this game like they did a year ago. Too bad it's only for a Rose invite.
Pick: USC
Ohio State vs... (Big Ten Championship Game)
Nevermind.
As usual, send any comments or questions to danshanoff-[at]-gmail-[dot]-com.
Comments
UCLA will dominate USC Shanoff, you should know that UCLA only shows up for the big games and then of course will lose to ####### Utah =(
Making overblown statements is the greatest thing to happen to sports in the last decade!
Bowling Green: If you want to see three quarterbacks on the field at once.
BUT: I'm sure there's a downside I don't see here.
Where's your SEC now, Shanoff?
/Edward G. Robinson
Dan Shanoff is to college football, as SSW is to the NFL
No pick on Army/Navy?
And you call yourself an American?
Felix Jones would like to talk to you about this one-man team Shanoff
The Championship Subdivision got underway this past weekend. Go Panthers!
Doesn't every college football season come down to a simple set of "ifs"?
Mike Sherman as the next head coach at A&M?!?!
Are you fucking kidding me? That's the best we can do? I'd rather have Fran back over his ass...
/A&M Alum
4. Kansas
Mangino could eat the Buckeyes, I think.
Agreeified.
If Hawaii wins out, they should play in the title game. If you go undefeated against a D1 schedule, especially with the trouble they have scheduling "name" opponents, you should be rewarded.
Jebus, Dan Shanoff...you just can't help the OSU digs can ya?
Kansas looked so ridiculously slow against Missouri..yikes. Think I'd take Ohio State in that matchup.
Dennis Dixon one man team > Darren McFadden on man team
Hawaii: If you want the nation's only unbeaten team.
BUT: It would make a mockery of the sport.
Because the whole thing isn't already a mockery of itself. Why doesn't the NCAA just get it over with and say if you're not a historical powerhouse you have no chance. We could have:
The Bowl Championship Subdivision
The Bowl Non-Championship Subdivision
The Playoff Championship Subdivision
Notre Dame
re: no Big Ten title game
Maybe Notre Dame will reconsider joining?
It would make a mockery of the sport.
If the BCS mocks college football one more time, it gets a free sub with purchase of medium-sized drink.
Shanoff still doesn't seem to be aware that a conference has to have 12 teams to have a championship game. Until they get [insert MAC school here, cause Notre Dame ain't] to join, Big 10/11 isn't having a C.C. Game.
Who isn't excited about Mizzou West Virginia??
The rest of the non-family fucking world?
@HIV 2 Elway: *one man team.
/it was a rough weekend
Reading this whole thing, I've now gone cross-eyed.
@'Suss--': BUT: Opposing team's punters still too fast for them.
[speechless Mizzou alum wonders if he died and woke up in some bizarro world, shrugs, continues post-KU destruction celebration]
@HIV 2 Elway: I was on the man team in high school. We just ate steaks and punched each other in the face.
I don't care what anybody says, GO Mount'neers!
They play football the way football was meant to be played... like a pack of 12-year-olds who can't throw a spiral yet.
Honestly though, if this season has not proven that we need a playoff in D-1... what has it done? What a great year in college football.
Where does one find a BCS CliffsNotes?
@KimGordonsPanties:
Guarantee that Quinn Snyder will not be singing "Eye of the Tiger" in the locker room before the Big 12 CG.
@Botswana Meat Commission FC: Why throw when you can line up White/Slaton/Devine all at once?
3. Ohio State - Dropping the "S" to root for OU.
Hi Dan,
I'm sure this hasn't been brought to your attention yet, but by cheering for Oklahoma next week, you're actually cheering for the Buckeyes.
/Captain Obvious
@Pennington_Noodlearm_Enthusiast:
But were they steaks of life?
/shameless Arrowhead self promotion
@twoeightnine:
Isn't going to school in Hawaii reward enough?
Why should the Big Ten have a title game? In that scenario, we'd just beat Michigan for the right to play Michigan again.
BC's not ranked #2 this time, so I don't think the Coastal Division champs should have any problems. I'm just worried about the rematch bowl game with UGA since Beamer has that (un)stellar record against Top 5 teams. Hopefully he'll keep Glennon's imminent nuclear meltdown from happening twice.
Kansas over Georgia?!
They have exactly one quality win (A&M), and UGA's beaten four ranked teams, two of whom are in the current top 25, (one who is the current #10 and defending national champion), and they're in what is undeniably the toughest conference and division in the country. I'm not saying Georgia should be #1, but Kansas is the Frank Stallone of that top ten.
@UkraineNotWeak: Never heard of the guy. If he did exist, we erased him from memory.
My life has been mercifully simplified this season, as I'm able to fulfill my weekly shrill quota by lunchtime every Monday. Thanks, Dan.
Isn't going to school in Hawaii reward enough?
If it wasn't for the incredibly high cost of living and the even more incredibly shitty facilities I'd say yes.
Anyone who is against a playoff but in favor of a conference championships is an idiot. Conference championships weaken the regular season - see Tigers, Missouri.
Wouldn't it be nice if OSU got a second chance to beat Illinois?
@KimGordonsPanties: erased....from existence!
@Monday Morning Punter: Every four years, Wisconsin would be allowed to replace one of the two teams for variety's sake. Every twelve years, Northwestern would be allowed to embarrass the Big Ten by taking Wisconsin's place.
See? Parity! Excitement! Championship game!
As for "arguably the greatest individual performance in college football in the last decade" there was this Rose Bowl a few years ago that was also a national championship, where this one guy for Texas threw for 267 yards and ran for 200, including a game-winning touchdown with 19 seconds left.
@Frank Beamers Goiter: Well, BC won the game when everything (weather, homefield) favored the Hokies, so I'll stick with my Eagles in any game that features Sean Glennon in a starring role.
So the BCS is VT's destiny eh?
How do you know that, did the oracle tell you? Is it the same oracle that has been taking a giant shit on BC all year?
There is not one single person in the blogosphere or any expert that has picked Boston College to win. See you in Miami.
Also, I have a problem with West Virginia: who have they beat? UConn should have lost to Louisville and Temple if the refs hadn't fucked up twice, and thats WVFU's best win.
@Grib: I agree with you, but why do you even bother arguing Shanoff's opinions anymore? Everyone knows he knows nothing about college football.
@ghostsoftheSCupcountry:
C'mon, after Oklahoma throttled Boise State last year, it's pretty obvious that no team from the WAC can hang with a major conference power.
Plus it was awesome when Adrian Peterson proposed to his girlfriend after scoring the winning TD.
@Shawon-O-Meter: God was on your side. The rain stopped in the 4th quarter along with the rest of the VT first downs.
@The Man with No Name:
+1.
@Kid Canada: Hey, I'm just saying. Besides, if the game stinks, just cut to footage of the campus and the beaches. If ya go 12-0, ya play for the title.
@Kid Canada: And +1 for the revisionism.
Nebraska = 5 National Championships
Its the only professional sports the state has. Plus, if you average 10 wins a game you can represent the state in the House of Representatives.
@pr0ff3ss0r_j3rkwh3at: Seriously- I think Shanoff lost the last remaining shred of credibility* he had with that bozo comment.
*assuming he had any left
@Frank Beamers Goiter: Steering Wheel Taylor or Vince Hall weren't present either, and I can provide a little explanation for VT being ranked over LSU. LSU is not as good as they were starting the year (just look at their QB's play, its regressed) while VT is better and looks more like their 95-96 (the forgotten pre-Mexico era) Alliance bowl teams.
@chilltown:
It's Orange Bowl or bust for BC, too.
Thanks to the all-important "travel rep" factor, if BC doesn't win this weekend, we'll probably get passed up by Clemson/UVA for the 2/3 ACC bowl games.
Dear bowl game commissioners: we'll travel somewhere when we go to a good bowl/location. A December game in Boise, Detroit, Nashville, or Charlotte? We're good at the bar, thanks.
@Charles: Actually, the Peach Bowl has all but pledged to take us if we lose. Not a bad consolation prize, but I want the Orange.
Hawaii: If you want the nation's only unbeaten team.
BUT: It would make a mockery of the sport
So they can't play in the title game, and the Irish won't let them march in their parade. It's a sham I tells ya!
@Frank Beamers Goiter: The more I think about it the more I agree with you.
I thought that this would be the week LSU would be the healthiest and would silence doubters by blasting Dmac and Nutt. I was definitely wrong.
As for Tech I think missing Hall was big, but not the reason why we lost. We had BC on the ropes for 56 minutes and we should have stepped on their throat while we could have. Now that Glennon and Tyrod are putting up points we should be able to take advantage of our defensive stops and score more.