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Aug 22, 2007 04:30 PM
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New York, 8:02 AM
Wed Feb 10
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Tonight, against the first-place (for now!) Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona pitcher Brandon Webb is attempting to extend his 42 consecutive inning scoreless sheet. He's 17 innings away from tying Orel Hershiser's record of 59 — Orel Hershiser married a girl from Mattoon, by the way — and that's just two shutouts away. Having watched him in Atlanta last week, it's clearly possible, and almost seems likely.
But if Baseball Prospectus has taught us anything, it's that the anecdotal is bullocks; it's time to go to the numbers. Vegas Watch breaks down the odds of it happening, and Johnny Number Five computes that Webb has a 1 in 57 chance of breaking Orel's record. Of course, BP says the Cubs are the favorites in the NL Central, and hey, that'll be the day!
(Sorry.)
What Are The Odds: Brandon Webb [Vegas Watch]
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