Phillies vs. Braves Game 3 Prediction: Best Bets for NL Wild Card

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves play a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday at Truist Park at 8:00 p.m. ET in the only game of the day. All of the other three Wild Cards series ended in a 2-0 series sweep.

The Braves scratched out a 5-3 victory in Game 1 on Tuesday as heavy favorites (-192) behind LHP Chris Sale, while the Phillies rebounded with a 4-3 win as moderate underdogs (+158) behind LHP Cristopher Sanchez as the total (7) pushed at most shops.

In Game 2, Philadelphia piled up 12 hits, although RF-1B Bryce Harper and 1B-3B Alec Bohm were the only Phillies to collect two hits. Both players left the yard, with Bohm’s homer of the solo variety, and Harper belting a solo homer in the top of the eighth inning. He had a costly misplay in the outfield earlier in the game, so you know the dinger felt good.

Atlanta had nine hits, and it also had two players with multiple hits. DH Drake Baldwin ended up 2 for 5 with a double and an RBI, while 1B Matt Olson finished 1 for 4 with a pair of RBI. LF-SS Mauricio Dubon ended up collecting two singles in five at-bats.

Sanchez was a bit shaky in his start, allowing three runs, six hits and a shocking five walks in 6.2 IP, but he limited the damage. On the flip side, Braves RHP Tyler Mahle allowed just one run, six hits and one walk across innings, so Atlanta’s bullpen spoiled that outstanding effort. For a while, it appeared Mahle was going to deliver the Braves to the National League Divisional Series.

According to reports, both teams have TBD listed for the starting pitcher for this all-important game. Manager Don Mattingly had said RHP Aaron Nola was lined up to pitch, but RHP Zach Wheeler could also be an option. With the season on the line, both pitchers could potentially make an appearance.

For Atlanta, it’s possible there is an opener, or RHP Grant Holmes could make the start. The thinking is that Holmes comes on in the second inning and eats up a possible five innings or so.

Nola (7-12, 4.67 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) was horrific this season, but he had a respectable 3.84 ERA on the road in 93.2 IP across 17 starts on the road. Teams are hitting 48 points lower against him on the road, too. However, he has served up 37 homers this season in just 175.1 IP, and it’s hard to imagine he has a long leash, if he even actually pitches.

Wheeler (14-5, 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) pitched on Sunday against Tampa Bay, winning his regular-season finale, and he racked up 193 strikeouts this season. That seems like the best bet.

Holmes (10-6, 3.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) was 7-4 at home in 15 starts this season, but he had a dismal 4.54 ERA at Truist, allowing 13 homers, with teams hitting 68 points higher (.273) at home than on the road. He was 1-0 with a 3.05 ERA in four starts against Philadelphia this season.
Let’s attack this game a couple of different ways. First off, if it’s Nola who starts (check back before finalizing your bet), go with the Braves. But, if it is Wheeler who comes back on short rest, we’re all in on the PHILLIES (-116). It’s hard to believe Mattingly wouldn’t go that way. And, in a winner-take-all, let’s go UNDER 7.5 (-118) on the total, as runs will be at a premium.