Why Rafa Garcia Is the Best Underdog Bet at UFC Noche

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Rafa Garcia (+140)

Model Odds: -113
Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Submission (+513)

It’s easy to back a native of Mexico during a celebration of the country’s independence. There’s much more of a reason than that to back Rafa “Gifted” Garcia as a ‘dog on Saturday, though.

Garcia is on a tear. He’s won five of his last six, and he was a substantial underdog in two of those wins. I think the market might still be weighing too heavily his early-career form before a move to Bloodline Combat Sports with Cub Swanson, which has also elevated the games of those like Lerryan Douglas, Richie Miranda, and Danny Silva in Orange County.

Even with that factored into my model, Garcia’s elite striking defense (61%) scores him some points in striking acumen that a -0.14 striking success rate (SSR) does not. Rongzhu’s SSR (+0.67) is actually much better on the other side.

But, the lightweight veteran is 8-0 as a pro by submission, and he’s added 3.22 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He’s definitely got the grappling upside in this matchup, even if Rongzhu (84% takedown D) is a difficult guy to floor.

Plus, stats can lie, and Rongzhu’s strength of victory will produce inflated ones. His victories in UFC-affiliated settings are a combined 5-15 in official UFC bouts. He’s really crushed competition on “Road to UFC”, as well as winless fighters like Victor Martinez and Brandon Jenkins, to disguise struggles against legitimate competition.

Many believe hyped prospect Kody Steele was that, but Steele’s -2.35 SSR shows that’s mostly fiction rather than fact at this stage.

But, the acclaim for Steele is all I can conjecture has Rongzhu a substantial favorite over a proven challenger at this stage. He dispatched Jared Gordon and Alexander Hernandez, multi-time UFC winners, with ease recently.

I agree with my model’s verdict. 

I’d have Garcia a slight favorite in this matchup on a neutral site — much less in front of a pro-Mexico crowd that can influence judging with big reactions to every punch. A submission lean is intriguing when Rongzhu lost by tapout the last time he faced a submission attempt in February 2022.