After over a month of incredible action, the World Cup is over. It was the final opportunity for the top players of the season to make their mark before the Ballon d’Or is awarded in October.
Spain prevailed over Lionel Messi’s Argentina in the World Cup final, boosting the chances of stars Lamine Yamal and Rodri to take home the sport’s most prestigious individual honor. However, Bayern Munich and England star Harry Kane still leads what Kalshi sees as an open race for the award.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or covers the period from the start of August 2025 to the end of July 2026, capturing the entire club season and World Cup. So it’s a long game for prediction market bettors, with individual statistics, team success, impact moments, and overall narratives all playing into how the award is decided.
Here, we’ll examine the Ballon d’Or cases for the top six contenders at Kalshi.
Kane has consistently been near the top of the Ballon d’Or market this year after a historic club campaign. The striker scored a career-high 61 times in 51 matches for Bayern Munich to earn his second career European Golden Shoe and help the club win the Bundesliga again. He also scored 12 goals for England and guided his country to the World Cup semifinals.
Holding back Kane’s chances of becoming the first Englishman to win the Ballon d’Or since Michael Owen in 1998 is the lack of major trophies. Kane couldn’t stop England from falling to Argentina in the semifinals and didn’t score in that game or the quarterfinals. Bayern Munich also lost in the semifinals of the Champions League. Still, when only Lionel Messi has scored more goals in a season, you’re rightfully the Ballon d’Or favorite.
The Spanish superstar added the World Cup to his Euros win from two years ago, and right after turning 19 years old. Yamal produced another outstanding season for Barcelona, with 22 goals and 15 assists in La Liga and the Champions League. He finished as the runner-up last year and now looks a serious contender to become the first player under 21 to win the Ballon d’Or.
Yamal might be the runaway favorite had he not suffered a hamstring injury that ended his club season early. The teenager’s role was slowly ramped up during the World Cup, and the early success in the tournament of Kane, Messi, and Kylian Mbappé overshadowed him. While Spain won the World Cup, Yamal finished with one goal and no assists in the tournament. His case remains strong, but the next player’s influence on Spain’s win might hold Yamal back.
Rodri already has a Ballon d’Or in his trophy case after winning the award in 2024, but he wasn’t a factor in this year’s race until the World Cup. In fact, his “Yes” contracts were around 1¢ right up until he masterminded a stunning 2-0 win over France in the semifinals. He was excellent again against Argentina, running the game and not allowing Messi and Co. a sniff at goal. For his efforts, Rodri earned the Golden Ball for the tournament’s top player.
Unfortunately for Rodri, his club season was hampered by a devastating knee injury at the end of the 2024/25 campaign. He spent much of the year working his way back to full health and looked far from his best for Manchester City, which failed to win the Premier League for a second year. But Rodri was back in top form at the World Cup, and while he doesn’t have the flashy stats of his competitors, he shined on the biggest stage.
Mbappé’s Ballon d’Or case has been a rollercoaster. The Real Madrid star produced another great individual club season, leading both La Liga and the Champions League in goals. However, a knee injury slowed him toward the end of the season, and Real Madrid ended the campaign without a trophy.
But Mbappé was incredible at the World Cup, finishing with 10 goals to win the Golden Boot and becoming the top scorer in the tournament’s history. The forward’s “Yes” contracts reached as high as 38¢ as France looked unstoppable, right until the favorites were ousted by Spain in the semifinals. Mbappé scored twice in a third-place playoff loss to England, which boosted him back up from the low single digits. But his wait for a Ballon d’Or still seems likely.
Messi seemed destined for a ninth Ballon d’Or, as Argentina dramatically fought through the knockout stage to make its second straight World Cup final. Despite turning 39 years old during the tournament, Messi carried the team, scoring eight goals and providing four assists. The Inter Miami star’s “Yes” contracts peaked at 50¢ just before the final against Spain. But it wasn’t to be for Messi, who could do nothing to stop Argentina losing 1-0 in extra time.
Messi was mostly held in check by Spain’s outstanding defense and missed out on the Golden Boot to Mbappé and the Golden Ball to Rodri, though some question the legitimacy of the French forward winning it with goals in the Bronze Final. Messi did win a second straight MLS MVP award and guided his team to its first MLS Cup.
The current Ballon d’Or holder saw his chances of retaining the honor dwindle after an injury-hit start to the season. But Dembélé bounced back late in the season, powering PSG to a second straight Champions League win. He scored seven goals from the Round of 16 onward, including three in two semifinal matches and one in the final. This shot Dembélé back into contention.
Dembélé scored a hat trick against Norway in the World Cup but was overshadowed by teammates Mbappé and Michael Olise for most of the tournament. His realistic chances of keeping his Ballon d’Or crown ended when France were eliminated by Spain during the semifinals, along with his lack of overall numbers during the club campaign.
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