Argentina survived a scare against Cape Verde to continue its pursuit of back-to-back World Cup titles.
Lionel Messi looks to retake the Golden Boot lead after Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland also reached 7 goals during the Round of 16.
Egypt took down Australia on penalties and are 1 of 2 remaining African teams at the World Cup.
Argentina’s World Cup defense almost fell apart in spectacular fashion, with the team twice being pegged back by Cape Verde before an own goal in extra time sealed the win. Fortunately, Lionel Messi and Co.’s favorable bracket means they face an Egypt side that struggled against Australia before prevailing on penalties. The winner will go on to face either Switzerland or Colombia in the quarterfinals.
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Messi remains everything for Argentina, even at 39 years old. He’s been the team’s primary threat in front of goal instead of the spark in the build-up, though, scoring 7 times but not yet registering an assist. Messi scored against Cape Verde and was instrumental in the winning goal, but he was quieter than in previous games. After needing to play 120 minutes, there are legitimate questions about how he’ll continue to handle such a heavy workload.
Egypt relies on its own legend in Mo Salah. While the winger has only found the net once in 4 games, he has been the driving force of Egypt’s attacks. The former Liverpool star leads the tournament with 16 chances created and has 2 assists. With Argentina’s defense looking vulnerable out wide, Salah and Omar Marmoush will be crucial to Egypt creating chances. The African team needs to be more aggressive, following Cape Verde’s approach, after being way too passive against Australia.
Argentina’s defense has been robust throughout the tournament, allowing only 3 goals, though it has yet to face a top attack. The South Americans are 5th in expected goals allowed (xGA) among the remaining teams. While conceding 2 goals to Cape Verde is a concern, Cape Verde actually produced only 0.45 xG and created zero big chances.
Argentina (-280)
Argentina is the clear favorite at the top World Cup betting sites, including FanDuel, and we expect a comfortable win. The performance against Cape Verde is a concern, but Argentina dominated the game for the most part. Of course, it all comes down to Messi being able to maintain this form, but until he shows significant signs of wearing down, we’ll back Argentina.
Egypt has been too defensive and hasn’t been willing to take chances moving forward, despite its attacking talent. Even with that approach, Egypt has yet to keep a clean sheet. While the rest of Argentina’s attacking players need to step up more, the reigning champions still have an array of established weapons beyond Messi.
Under 2.5 Goals (-122)
Argentina is coming off a grueling extra-time win, and as we’ve mentioned, is highly reliant on Messi for goals. Even an average performance from the star forward could mean Argentina struggles to score. The South Americans have been outperforming in terms of the quality of chances created. No remaining team at the World Cup has a higher expected goals (xG) vs actual goals than Argentina’s +1.08.
Meanwhile, Egypt has scored just 6 goals in the tournament, with 3 of those coming in a win against New Zealand. Marmoush leads the team in xG per 90 (0.33) but ranks 75th among all players. A slow-paced and tense knockout game is the most likely outcome, so the under is a solid play.
Lionel Messi (-140)
Until someone else on Argentina can consistently score, we have to roll with the legendary forward, regardless of the odds. Messi has 7 goals in 4 games, becoming the World Cup’s greatest-ever scorer by taking his career tally to 20 goals across 6 tournaments.
Argentina’s attack is all about feeding the 39-year-old, with only 3 other players scoring this tournament and none with more than 1. While Egypt will be focused on stopping Messi, it doesn’t have the defenders or the structure to do so.
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