Argentina needed an all-time comeback to win 3-2 against Egypt in the Round of 16.
Switzerland beat Colombia on penalties to reach the quarterfinals.
The winner of this match will play either Norway or England in the semifinal.
Argentina’s dreams of retaining its World Cup crown looked over, down 2-0 to Egypt late in the Round of 16 game. But Lionel Messi came to the rescue once again, pushing the reigning champions to score 3 goals in the last 15 minutes, including one from the legendary forward himself. Switzerland’s route was dramatic too, beating Colombia on penalties after neither team found the back of the net during open play.
Wagering Needed (WR): New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days. (Up to $1,000 Bet Reset Tokens). T&Cs and 21+ apply
Argentina is either a team of destiny or riding a wild run of luck. The South Americans needed two extra-time goals to get past Cape Verde and were all but out before a miraculous comeback against Egypt, which included VAR controversy for a disallowed goal for the African team. As always, Argentina is relying on Messi to produce magic. And he keeps delivering (except for penalties, with two misses so far). But, with all due respect, Argentina is lucky to have drawn the likes of Egypt and Cape Verde in the first knockout stages.
Switzerland will be a step up in competition, though they’re arguably still the worst team left in the tournament. The European team will also likely be without top scorer Johan Manzambi, who missed the Round of 16 with an undisclosed injury. It’s a major blow for a Switzerland attack that looked to have found its form before the Colombia game. This means even more creative responsibility will be laid at Granit Xhaka’s feet.
Fortunately for Switzerland, Argentina has been vulnerable in defense. Egypt continuously exposed the South Americans on the counter. Argentina kept a clean sheet for the first two games but has conceded five goals in the past three games. Without Manzambi, Breel Embolo will be the biggest goal-scoring threat, having scored twice and produced two assists.
Messi’s eight goals through the Round of 16 were the most of any player. But he’s also acting as the main creative force, as shown by his six chances created against Egypt. Julian Alvarez and Alexis Mac Allister have yet to score in this World Cup, and Argentina needs them, and also the likes of Enzo Fernandez, to step up to ease the burden off Messi.
Argentina (+145)
Another extra time for the reigning champions was tempting, and we might pick against them if they faced any other remaining team at the World Cup. While Argentina should’ve never been in the vulnerable positions against Cape Verde and Egypt, it did ultimately prevail when Messi and Co. went into another gear.
Without Manzambi, Switzerland is missing its X-factor that could’ve swung a close game its way. The team remains talented and disciplined, and Argentina will likely struggle to break down the Swiss defensive structure. But Messi continues to find a way, so we’re picking Argentina to book a semifinal place within regulation.
Under 2.5 Goals (-150)
Argentina have been painfully slow starters during the knockout phase, scoring just one goal before the 75th minute. Switzerland have conceded just three goals all tournament and never more than one in a game. Of course, they haven’t faced a team with as talented forwards as Argentina, but as we pointed out earlier, none outside of Messi are in form. Also, Switzerland goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has the fourth-highest save percentage.
While the South Americans have conceded four goals to Cape Verde and Egypt, the advanced stats tell us it was more opportunistic finishing rather than consistently poor defense. Cape Verde finished with just 0.47 expected goals (xG), and Egypt produced 0.89 xG. Overall, Argentina is a good defense that should be able to contain an undermanned Switzerland attack.
Lionel Messi (-105)
We don’t trust anyone else on Argentina to reliably score. While the value isn’t great, as Messi has easily the shortest odds at all top World Cup betting sites, it’s still the only worthy anytime goalscorer bet. Messi might not be able to convert a penalty, but he’s always in the right place at the right time in goalscoring opportunities.
Messi showed how he can activate another level against Egypt, even at 39 years old. He might not be able to turn it on all game long, but with eight goals already in the tournament and a record 20 overall, we don’t doubt the superstar is the best bet to find the back of the net.
Wagering Needed (WR): New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days. (Up to $1,000 Bet Reset Tokens). T&Cs and 21+ apply
Loading …
