Bears vs Lions Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Thanksgiving’s Early Game

Richard Janvrin
Published: Tue Nov 26 2024
Reviewed By Paul Skidmore
Detroit lions jared goff 2024 season

Not only do we have Thursday Night Football in Week 13 in the NFL, but with it being Thanksgiving Day, there are three games throughout the afternoon and evening.

Kicking off the slate is the 10-1 Detroit Lions hosting the 4-7 Chicago Bears. The Lions are 10.5-point favorites.

At BetMGM Sportsbook, numerous player props are available, including quarterback passing yards. The line for Lions signal-caller Jared Goff is 244.5, while Caleb Williams of the Bears is at 221.5.

Below, I’ll fill you in on the current BetMGM welcome bonus, provide my best bet for this game, and dive into the quarterback passing yard player props.

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Bears vs. Lions Betting Preview: NFL Week 13

Game Details

  • Teams: Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
  • Date: Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024
  • Kickoff: 12:30 pm ET
  • Location: Ford Field in Detroit, MI

Latest Odds

  • Spread: Bears +10.5 (-110), Lions -10.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Bears +450, Lions -650
  • Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-110)

Bears vs. Lions Best Bet

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is coming off a good game, throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but he’s facing a much more difficult defense this week.

The Lions have allowed just one passing touchdown over the last four games and have never allowed more than one passing touchdown in a game.

They also average 1.27 interceptions per game, picking off at least one pass in all but one game this season.

Against running back, the Lions are equally strong, giving up just 68.73 rushing yards per outing and holding the position to less than four yards per carry.

Meanwhile, the Bears are allowing 111.09 rushing yards and nearly one rushing score per game. This won’t bode well against a Lions offense that has Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield.

The Lions are fourth in the NFL, averaging 150.8 rushing yards per game.

The Bears offense is going to have trouble moving the ball here while the Lions continue to dominate.

Best Bet: Lions -10.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

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Score Prediction for Bears vs. Lions

The Bears put up 27 last week, but that wasn’t against this Lions defense. The Lions have held teams to 14 or less in four of the last five games.

We’re in for a blowout here as the Bears offense stalls out.  The total is at 48.5, but I’d take the under and the Lions to cover at -10.5 with a final score of 27-13.

NFL Player Props for Thanksgiving Day Football

At the time of this overview, touchdown-related props weren’t available, so we’ve turned to quarterback passing stats.

The line for both quarterbacks is at 1.5 passing touchdowns. As for passing yards, Goff is at 244.5, while Williams is at 221.5. I enjoy player prop betting because it allows you to wager on something besides the outcome of a game. Between the props listed below, I’d take Williams to go over at 221.5.

I’m expecting a bit of a blowout, resulting in Williams having to throw. The Lions allow 242.55 passing yards per game. This season, seven quarterbacks have thrown for 222 yards or more. Williams has thrown for 222 yards or more in five of 11 games this season.

Quarterback Passing Yards Props

Detroit Lions

  • Jared Goff Over 244.5 Passing Yards: 53.49% probability (-115)
  • Jared Goff Under 244.5 Passing Yards: 54.55% probability (-120)

Chicago Bears

  • Caleb Williams Over 221.5 Passing Yards: 53.49% probability (-115)
  • Caleb Williams Under 221.5 Passing Yards: 53.49% probability (-115)

Quarterback Passing Touchdowns Props

Detroit Lions

  • Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing TDs: 55.56% probability (-125)
  • Jared Goff Under 1.5 Passing TDs: 51.22% probability (-105)

Chicago Bears

  • Caleb Williams Over 1.5 Passing TDs: 36.36% probability (+175)
  • Caleb Williams Under 1.5 Passing TDs: 71.43% probability (-250)
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