Belgium produced an all-time comeback to beat Senegal 3-2 in extra time.
USA striker Folarin Balogun will play after his red card against Bosnia & Herzegovina was dramatically suspended by FIFA.
Belgium (+175) vs USA (+150) is seen as one of the most evenly matched Round of 16 games.
(This article and some betting picks have been updated in the wake of Folarin Balogun’s red card being suspended)
The USA continues to chase World Cup glory on home soil, and Belgium is the latest team to stand in the way of the American Dream.
A Round of 32 win for the co-hosts was overshadowed by the loss of leading goalscorer Folarin Balogun after the striker received a controversial red card. However, after President Donald Trump reportedly called FIFA president Gianni Infantino to ask for the striker’s ban against Belgium to be reviewed, Balogun was ruled eligible to play in the knockout game.
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Belgium and the USA know each other well, after the former won a 5-2 friendly back in March. The two sides also met in the Round of 16 during the 2014 World Cup, with Belgium still relying on the two players who scored in that 2-1 win, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. The USA is a far different outfit, though, becoming a more modern and expansive team under Mauricio Pochettino.
The co-hosts are no longer reliant on one player, with a team full of standouts from Europe’s top 4 leagues. So while Balogun playing is a major boost for the Stars and Stripes, it likely wasn’t going to fall apart without him. Christian Pulisic no longer needs to carry the team offensively, but is still a creative force; Malik Tillman and Weston McKennie form a well-rounded midfield duo; and the defense is disciplined and imposing.
Belgium’s strength going forward relies on its outstanding wingers, Jeremy Doku and Leandro Trossard. Of course, De Bruyne is the creative force, and Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie have the major task of limiting the legendary midfielder. While Lukaku has scored twice at the World Cup, fears over his continued lack of fitness mean he’ll likely be a substitute again, with Charles De Ketelaere starting.
USA (+150)
The USA has proven it is a complete team at this World Cup. We picked the USA even before Balogun was cleared to play, and obviously his inclusion only makes us more confident. The USA’s midfield has been outstanding this tournament, with Tillman the standout in the Round of 32, scoring a great free kick and contributing to Balogun’s goal. With De Bruyne looking worryingly off the pace, it should be a major advantage.
Belgium looked down and out until two late goals forced extra time against Senegal. It seemed to be the swansong for Belgium’s golden generation. While the team’s resilience should be commended, its vulnerability when defending and reliance on aging players make it a poor matchup for a determined and high-energy USA side bolstered by home support.
Under (+115)
Even with Balogun back, we’re leaning toward the under in this game. Belgium might have scored 9 goals so far, but it has been highly inconsistent. They struggled to create much against Senegal until some bold substitutions, taking off Doku and De Bruyne. De Ketelaere isn’t a good fit as a striker, but with Lukaku unable to play a full game, Belgium doesn’t have much choice.
The USA rested players against Turkiye, so taking just games at full strength, the team has only conceded once. We expect the co-host’s defense to hold up well once again. The USA is also outperforming its expected goals, with an xG of 1.56 per 90 compared to 2.5 actual goals per 90, giving it the fourth-highest xG vs Actual (+0.94. Some regression in its finishing should be expected. With solid value for the under (+115) at BetMGM, one of the best World Cup betting sites, we’re going with a low-scoring and tense knockout game.
Folarin Balogun (+150)
We’d originally picked Pulisic here, with the forward likely to need to step up in Balogun’s absence. But Balogun himself is the best option now, in our opinion. He’s scored 3 times already this tournament, and his physicality and movement should be a problem for a Belgium back line that looked vulnerable against Senegal.
Plus, while we like backing goalscorers based on statistical and matchup-based reasoning, Balogun scoring after all the controversy of his ban and its subsequent suspension feels like an inevitable part of the storyline.
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