Belgium produced an all-time comeback to beat Senegal 3-2 in extra time.
The USA battled past Bosnia & Herzegovina but will be without Folarin Balogun due to a red card.
Belgium (+165) vs USA (+160) is seen as one of the most evenly matched Round of 16 games.
The USA continues to chase World Cup glory on home soil, and Belgium is the latest team to stand in the way of the American Dream. A Round of 32 win for the co-hosts was overshadowed by the loss of leading goalscorer Folarin Balogun after the striker received a controversial red card. The rest of the USA team will need to rally to defeat a Belgium side bolstered by a stunning turnaround against Senegal.
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Belgium and the USA know each other well, after the former won a 5-2 friendly back in March. The two sides also met in the Round of 16 during the 2014 World Cup, with Belgium still relying on the two players who scored in that 2-1 win, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. The USA is a far different outfit, though, becoming a more modern and expansive team under Mauricio Pochettino.
As we mentioned before, the USA will be without arguably its best player of the tournament. Balogun has cemented himself as the team’s first-choice striker with 3 goals, including 1 in the Round of 32. Ricardo Pepi will likely be tasked with replacing Balogun, and more attacking responsibility will be placed on Christian Pulisic. Neither player has scored at the World Cup so far.
Belgium’s strength going forward relies on its outstanding wingers, Jeremy Doku and Leandro Trossard. Of course, De Bruyne is the creative force, and Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie have the major task of limiting the legendary midfielder. While Lukaku has scored twice at the World Cup, fears over his continued lack of fitness mean he’ll likely be a substitute again, with Charles De Ketelaere starting.
USA (+160)
The USA has proven it is a complete team at this World Cup. So while the loss of Balogun is a big one, they have the depth to make up for it in the aggregate. Pulisic looked lively in the Round of 32, with a goal called back for offside. Malik Tillman had his best game too. And while Pepi isn’t Balogun, he’s coming off a 16-goal domestic season for PSV, and his desire to run in behind could be effective against a questionable Belgian defense.
Belgium looked down and out until two late goals forced extra time against Senegal. It seemed to be the swansong for Belgium’s golden generation. While the team’s resilience should be commended, its vulnerability when defending and reliance on aging players make it a poor matchup for a determined and high-energy USA side bolstered by home support.
Under (+105)
We’re feeling the under in this game. Belgium might have scored 9 goals so far, but it has been highly inconsistent. They struggled to create much against Senegal until some bold substitutions, taking off Doku and De Bruyne. De Ketelaere isn’t a good fit as a striker, but with Lukaku unable to play a full game, Belgium doesn’t have much choice.
The USA rested players against Turkiye, so taking just games at full strength, the team has only conceded once. The co-hosts can still win without Balogun, but it’s undoubtedly less dynamic. His hold-up play and finishing have been key to the team’s approach when attacking. With solid value for the under (+105) at BetMGM, one of the best World Cup betting sites, we’re going with a low-scoring and tense knockout game.
Christian Pulisic (+195)
This game doesn’t have the most appealing anytime goalscorer market, with Balogun out and Lukaku likely set for reduced minutes. Pulisic might not have found the net, but he’ll need to step up and be more aggressive in Balogun’s absence. He’s the USA’s most established star, and Belgium had trouble defending Senegal’s play from the wings.
Pulisic should also be at full fitness after missing time in the group stage with a calf injury. The star forward was also able to break a long goal drought in the penultimate friendly before the World Cup, lifting some mental weight off his shoulders.
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