Commanders v Eagles Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Vinolin Naidoo
Updated: 11/04/2026
Reviewed By Paul Skidmore
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On Thursday Night Football in Week 11 of the NFL season, the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles will battle for first place in the NFC East.

The Eagles are 7-2, while the Commanders are 7-3. The Eagles are on a five-game winning streak, while the Commanders are coming off a loss.

The Commanders are 3.5-point underdogs heading out to face the Eagles on the road.

At BetMGM Sportsbook, numerous touchdown-related props exist, including Anytime TD scorer and First TD scorer. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley tops both at +400 to score first and -190 for an anytime touchdown.

Below, I’ll examine this welcome bonus more, check out some props, and provide my best bet for this game.

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Eagles vs. Commanders Betting Preview: NFL Week 11

Game Details

  • Teams: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
  • Date: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
  • Kickoff: 8:15 pm ET
  • Location: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA

Latest Odds

  • Spread: Commanders +3.5 (-115), Eagles -3.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Commanders +150, Eagles -185
  • Total: Over/Under 49 (-110/-110)

Eagles vs. Commanders Best Bet

As mentioned earlier, the Eagles are on a five-gaming winning streak and have been 6-1 since starting the year 0-2.

The Eagles allow 192.44 passing yards and 0.89 passing touchdowns per game. They haven’t allowed a passing touchdown since Week 8. Since Week 6, they’ve only just one. Also, since Week 6, they’ve held opposing quarterbacks to 169 yards or less in four of five games.

The Eagles are taking on Commander quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has over 400 rushing yards this year. They’re allowing less than 12 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Meanwhile, the Commanders are allowing 1.7 passing touchdowns per game and five over the last two games.

They’ve allowed 47 rushing yards or more in two of the last three games, and they’ll have to slow down Eagles Jalen Hurts, who’s second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 10. The Commanders also need to find a way to slow down Barkley. Against running backs, they’ve surrendered just under 117 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown per game.

The Eagles will win this and cover at home.

Best Bet: Eagles +3.5 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

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Score Prediction for Eagles vs. Commanders

The Commanders have been gashed defensively this year, allowing nearly one rushing touchdown to opposing running backs and two passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Now, they have to slow down two players in Barkley and Hurts, who are second in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have shut down opposing quarterbacks, allowing just one passing touchdown since Week 6.  The Eagles win this one by a touchdown, 27-20.

NFL Player Props for Thursday Night Football

While you can wager on the moneyline, point spread, or total for this game, you can also wager on player props. These don’t always directly impact the game’s outcome and can provide another avenue for betting on a game you may not feel totally confident in picking.

My favorite player props are First TD scorer and Anytime TD scorer props at BetMGM. The safest one is for Barkley to score a touchdown at -190 (65.52% implied probability). The Commanders have allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs over the last five games and have allowed them to score in all but three games this season.

Hurts (-125) is also a solid bet (55.56% implied probability). The Commanders have only allowed one rushing touchdown to quarterbacks this season, but Hurts has scored 10 times and has run 10 times or more in three of the last five games.

Anytime TD Prediction & Probabilities

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Saquon Barkley Any Time TD: 65.52% probability (-190)
  • Jalen Hurts Any Time TD: 55.56% probability (-125)
  • A.J. Brown Any Time TD: 44.44% probability (+125)
  • DeVonta Smith Any Time TD: 33.33% probability (+200)
  • Dallas Goedert Any Time TD: 26.32% probability (+280)

Washington Commanders

  • Brian Robinson Jr. Any Time TD: 47.62% probability (+110)
  • Austin Ekeler Any Time TD: 47.62% probability (+110)
  • Terry McLaurin Any Time TD: 42.55% probability (+135)
  • Jayden Daniels Any Time TD: 33.33% probability (+200)
  • Noah Brown Any Time TD: 26.32% probability (+280)

First Scorer TD Prediction & Probabilities

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Saquon Barkley Any Time TD: 20% probability (+400)
  • Jalen Hurts Any Time TD: 14.29% probability (+600)
  • A.J. Brown Any Time TD: 11.11% probability (+800)
  • DeVonta SmithAny Time TD: 7.14% probability (+1300)
  • Dallas Goedert Any Time TD: 7.14% probability (+1300)

Washington Commanders

  • Brian Robinson Jr. Any Time TD: 11.11% probability (+800)
  • Austin Ekeler Any Time TD: 11.11% probability (+800)
  • Terry McLaurin Any Time TD: 8.33% probability (+1100)
  • Jayden Daniels Any Time TD: 7.69% probability (+1200)
  • Noah Brown Any Time TD: 4.76% probability (+2000)
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