Norway booked its place in the Round of 32 by finishing second in Group I.
Ivory Coast advanced through Group E, trailing Germany only by goal difference.
Norway opted to rest key players against France despite a chance to top the group.
Norway and Ivory Coast are set to play a Round of 32 contest that appears to be one of the most evenly matched in the bracket. The Europeans should come in fresh after the likes of Erling Haaland were kept on the bench in the final group game against France. Meanwhile, Ivory Coast pushed Germany all the way to secure its knockout place.
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We were robbed of the chance to see Haaland go shot-for-shot with Kylian Mbappe, as Norway rested 10 of its first-team players. Unsurprisingly, France won 4-1. Norway manager Stale Solbakken said his players needed the time to recover with qualification already assured. Whether that risk will pay off remains to be seen. Norway could be well-rested or rusty against Ivory Coast.
It does make sense for Norway to try to rest up, considering they like to play aggressively and utilize a high-pressing approach. Also playing into Norway’s hands is that the game will be played in the climate-controlled Dallas stadium. As always, everything Norway does is in service of Haaland, who had 4 goals in the first two games. His movement and physicality will be a nightmare for Ivory Coast’s center-back duo of Ousmane Diomande and Odilon Kossounou.
Ivory Coast showcased it can hang with a top team by almost earning a point against Germany. That loss came between two solid performances in wins against Ecuador and Curacao. The African team’s goalscoring abilities are a weakness, though. They’ve scored 4 total goals and had just 9 shots on target in 3 games. Yan Diomande, on the verge of a move to PSG, is the key man to cause Norway’s defense problems.
Norway (-145)
Norway’s decision to rest nearly its entire starting XI was controversial, but we see it paying off. They should be the fresher side, and more capable of engineering the devastating counterattacks it’s known for. Haaland has been the difference-maker for Norway in the tournament, with his quality making up for some of the team’s frailties.
The loss to France ended Norway’s streak of 9 straight wins in competitive matches. The team might not be experienced on the World Cup stage, but with the likes of Haaland and Martin Odegaard, they have top-class players who know how to win. The Ivory Coast should push Norway all the way, but the lack of goalscoring is why we see them ultimately failing to keep pace.
Over 2.5 Goals (-130)
All three of Norway’s World Cup games have featured 5 goals, though the France game obviously has an asterisk. The team is built to score, knowing its defense isn’t a strength. Norway’s ability to deliver at set pieces and on the counter means Ivory Coast will inevitably concede. While other knockout games are tense, this should be more of an open game.
While we’ve laid out Ivory Coast’s issues finding the back of the net, Norway will give them plenty of chances. Diomande, Amad Diallo, and Nicolas Pepe are a talented forward group and one capable of capitalizing on Norway’s vulnerability at the back.
Erling Haaland (-165)
Even as the clear leader in anytime goalscorer odds, you can’t go with anyone else. Haaland is perhaps the best striker in the world, and his finishing instinct inside the box is unrivaled. The Manchester City striker is lethal on set pieces, and Norway builds its around him. Haaland is also Norway’s designated penalty taker.
The superstar was rested against France, but he scored twice against Senegal and Iraq. Norway will feed Haaland chance after chance, and he only needs the slightest opening, anyway. If you want extra value, FanDuel, among the top World Cup betting sites, is offering Haaland 2+ goals at +310.
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