To kick off Week 3 of the NFL season, the New York Jets host the New England Patriots. The Jets are 1-1 after a Week 2 win over the Tennessee Titans on the road, while the Patriots are 1-1 after an overtime loss at home to the Seattle Seahawks.
Based on the moneylines, the Jets have an implied probability of 71.01% to win this game, while the Patriots are at 33.33%. Jets running back Breece Hall is the most likely player to score a touchdown at 59.18%.
Below, I’ll provide my best bet, score prediction, and more for this matchup.
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This game’s total is 38.5, so we’re seemingly in for a low-scoring affair. The Patriots were close to going 2-0, while the Jets let the Titans hang around. Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers also had an excellent 26-yard pass for a touchdown in this one.
Looking at the Jets, the offense has looked a bit clunky. Rodgers is coming off a torn Achilles, but he’s completing 31 of 51 passes for 343 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. To be fair to him, there were several drops in their Week 1 loss, and the interception came on a deflection. He averaged 6.7 yards per attempt and was under 6.0 in Week 2.
The ground game has also looked a bit suspect. Running back Breece Hall has 30 carries through two games for 116 yards and one touchdown run. Fellow running back Braelon Allen had eight carries for 41 yards and one touchdown. He could get more carries, considering his 5.1 yards per carry.
As for the Patriots, this defense is sensational, but the offense just doesn’t have enough firepower. Head coach Jerod Mayo mentioned how the team needs to start pushing the ball down the field, and that’s true—quarterback Jacoby Brissett has attempted just two passes 20+ yards downfield. He’s attempted 51 passes this season. He’s averaging 5.3 yards per attempt, completing 58.8% of his passes, and has one touchdown.
Based on how this defense plays, it begs the question of how much more explosive this offense could be with Drake Maye under center. At the same time, Brissett doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way. The defense has eight sacks and 32 pressures through two games. The running game is averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
I’m taking the Patriots +6.5. The Jets are -6.5 and -108, so we could see this push to six points at some stage. Even the +6 looks appealing enough as a bet.
I think the Patriots defense will do enough to hold this Jets offense in check. The Jets offense hasn’t looked great, and it’s not Aaron Rodgers’ fault—it’s play-caller Nathaniel Hackett’s. There’s not a lot happening, and I don’t think that’ll change this week.
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I think the Patriots have a chance to win this one, but I’ll side with the Jets because of the quarterback.
The Jets win at home 20-17, while the Patriots cover the spread, and this game goes slightly under at 38.5.
Player props allow you to wager on individual player performance without worrying about the game’s final outcome.
Of the bets below, a Stevenson touchdown is my favorite pick at +135. Taking Hall at -155 isn’t exactly valuable odds, and I expect Allen to get more opportunities. As for Stevenson, he should see 20+ touches against a Jets defense that have struggled to stop the run so far.
The Jets allowed the San Francisco 49ers 180 rushing yards and the Tennessee Titans 130. The Patriots offense is built around running the ball and short passes.
Below is the probability for the top five players on each team to score a touchdown and score the first touchdown, courtesy of odds at DraftKings Sportsbook:
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