Co-hosts Canada kick off the Round of 32 vs South Africa.
It’s the first time in the knockout stage for both teams.
The health of star Alphonso Davies is the key question for Canada.
The World Cup’s first-ever Round of 32 kicks off with co-hosts Canada taking on South Africa in Los Angeles. Canada missed out on the chance to continue playing on home soil by coming second to Switzerland in Group B. Meanwhile, South Africa finished as runners-up to Mexico in Group A after a 1-0 win over South Korea to end the group stage.
Wagering Needed (WR): 1x Deposit. T&Cs and 21+ apply
Both teams have made history by making it through the group stage. Canada will likely be frustrated by its slow and passive performance for much of the 2-1 loss to Switzerland. Late on, the team ramped up its attack and, with more time, looked like it could’ve earned the draw needed to top the group and retain home advantage. While Canada should still have strong support, losing that edge is a major blow.
But Canada is still the more talented side of this matchup, with the likes of Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Nathan Saliba, Cyle Larin, and Stephen Eustaquio making up a Golden Generation for the North American side. But the health of Davies, Canada’s best player, hangs over them. Davies hasn’t played in the tournament due to a hamstring injury, and manager Jesse Marsch admitted to using him as a decoy against Switzerland. Davies should be ready for South Africa, but his effectiveness is a significant question mark.
South Africa, meanwhile, got through the group stage with disciplined defense and organization. This helped them squeeze out a 1-0 win over South Korea despite losing the possession battle 69-31. South Africa also needed an 83rd-minute penalty to rescue a point vs Czechia. With only two goals scored so far, Bafana Bafana will need to unlock more attacking threat to challenge the co-hosts. The return of Teboho Mokoena from suspension is a big boost to the midfield that will be without Themba Zwane.
Canada (-140)
We’re going with the co-hosts getting it done in regulation. With Canada’s outright qualification set at -340 at FanDuel, one of the top World Cup betting sites, we’re confident of pushing for Canada to have the talent to not need extra time and betting the 3-way moneyline.
South Africa’s lack of goal threat is one of the big reasons why. Canada might not be an elite side going forward, but David and Davies are key players for top European teams for a reason. South Africa won’t break down easily, with a young but strong center back duo of Mbekezeli Mbokazi and Ime Okon. But we see Canada finding a way and earning its place in the Round of 16.
Under 2.5 Goals (-150)
Canada’s potency in front of goal at this World Cup is bolstered by a 6-0 destruction of Qatar. It was a great performance, but arguably an aberration rather than the norm. Canada scored two total goals in its other two games and looked overly conservative for too long against Switzerland. With Jonathan David in inconsistent form and Davies unlikely to be 100% healthy, Canada could struggle to break a determined South African defense.
South Africa also isn’t a strong attacking side. It has only scored once from open play and has only been average at creating chances, averaging 1.15 expected goals (xG) per 90, which ranks 26th. So in a likely cagey knockout game, we’ll run with the under.
Promise David (+195)
David looked electric after coming on as a substitute against Switzerland, with an excellent goal that gave Canada a shot at earning a draw in the final minutes. The striker has been working back from a major hip injury, which is why he’s been limited to coming off the bench.
His pace and size could be a real problem for a stout South African defense. Cyle Larin has been starting for Canada, but he struggled to make an impact against Switzerland. Even if David can’t force his way back into the starting lineup, he should get considerable minutes against South Africa.
Wagering Needed (WR): 1x Deposit. T&Cs and 21+ apply
Loading …
