Spain has qualified but is looking to secure Group H’s top spot.
Back-to-back draws have Uruguay in a precarious qualification position.
The two World Cup heavyweights will face off on June 26 in Zapopan.
The premier matchup of Group H, pitting two former World Cup champions against each other. As expected, Spain and Uruguay enter the final group games in first and second place. But Spain dropped points to Cape Verde, and Uruguay has drawn both its matches. So everything is still up for grabs in Group H.
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Spain rebounded from its shock 0-0 draw with Cape Verde by dominating Saudi Arabia 4-0. It was the kind of performance expected of Spain, which entered the tournament as the favorites. With Lamine Yamal back in the starting lineup, Spain looked far more direct and creative going forward. The Barcelona star also scored his first World Cup goal.
Seemingly fully healthy, Nico Williams has a chance to start for the first time against Uruguay after two substitute appearances. His inclusion would be a big boost for Spain, especially against a Uruguay defense that allowed Cape Verde to score twice. Dani Almo should retain his starting place after a strong performance.
A win will earn Spain the top spot in Group H. A draw will do the same unless Cape Verde can somehow beat Saudi Arabia by 5 goals or more. Things are more dicey for Uruguay, which will still be without the injured Ronald Araujo and Giorgian De Arrascaeta. The South Americans sit on 2 points. A draw should be enough given Uruguay’s level goal difference, but a loss will end their tournament.
Spain (-190)
A fully healthy Uruguay side might be able to squeeze a draw out of Spain, which showed it can be stifled against Cape Verde. But Uruguay plays a high-intensity and risky style under Marcelo Bielsa, and we see Pedri and Rodri winning the midfield battle against Federico Valverde.
As a result, a patient and efficient Spain will be able to find ways through Uruguay’s press, with Yamal and Williams able to stretch and break the back line. Uruguay doesn’t have the firepower it used to have in the Luis Suarez era, and the reigning European champions have yet to concede. Priced at -190 at BetMGM, one of the best World Cup betting sites, Spain’s moneyline is a straightforward choice.
Over 2.5 Goals (-118)
Set up as essentially a coin flip, we’re going with the over 2.5 goals. Uruguay could try to play for a 0-0 draw that would get it through to the next stage, but Biesla doesn’t operate that way. Uruguay will be aggressive throughout the game, and will even need to ramp it up if Spain scores first.
If Uruguay overstretches, Yamal and Williams will punish them on the counter. We could see Spain covering the over by itself, though with nothing to lose, Uruguay should push harder enough to break the European’s defense once.
Lamine Yamal (+138)
With Yamal behind both Mikel Oyarzabal (+105) and Ferran Torres (+135) in anytime goalscorer odds, we’ll happily take the teenage superstar. It’s understandable considering Spain will likely still limit his playing time to a degree, but Yamal has looked fully fit when on the field.
Yamal has already scored at the World Cup and produced seven shots in just 65 minutes of action. With Uruguay pressing forward for a result, they’ll leave plenty of chances for Yamal to do what he does best on the break.
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