The USA is coming off an incredible 4-1 win over Paraguay.
Australia stunned favored Turkiye with a 2-0 win. /p>
Star Christian Pulisic is an injury concern for USA.
The USA couldn’t have asked for a more perfect start to its home World Cup, demolishing Paraguay 4-1 in a result that’s ignited the hype surrounding the team. The co–hosts will look to continue their winning ways against an Australia side that wants to do the same after a shock opening-game win over Turkiye.
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The USA will be brimming with confidence coming off one of its best performances at the World Cup. Paraguay boasted a strong defense through the qualification process but was exposed by the USA, which dominated possession and showed off its ability to consistently create chances. They’ll need to be just as efficient in front of goal to take down Australia, which kept a clean sheet against Turkey despite 28 shots.
Folarin Balogun’s incredible two goals in 17 minutes against Paraguay solidified his position as the team’s first-choice striker. It had been an area of concern heading into the tournament, so Balogun immediately looking in-form is a big boost for the USA’s cohesion. However, there is some concern about Christian Pulisic’s fitness after he was subbed off after half-time due to a calf injury. He was crucial in engineering the USA’s early attacks.
The USA will need to watch out for Australia’s counterattack, which has been a weakness for Mauricio Pochettino’s side at times. Nestory Irankunda’s goal against Turkiye showcased how quickly Australia can create problems in transition. Irankunda and Mohamed Touré both have the pace to be a constant threat to get behind the USA. However, the USA managed to stifle that area of Australia’s game during a 2-1 friendly win last October.
USA (-165)
The USA have the chance to secure qualification and put themselves within touching distance of the top spot in Group D with a win. Coming off such an impressive performance against Paraguay, we don’t see them letting that chance slip. Even without Pulisic at full strength, the USA showed that other players and Pochettino’s flexible tactics can win games for the team.
Australia should provide a sterner test than Paraguay. A 1-1 draw against Switzerland and a 1-0 loss to Mexico in warm-up games showed Australia’s defense can hold up against higher-quality possession. It also showed, though, that Australia lacks a consistent goal threat. While they can be a problem on the counter as we mentioned, Australia doesn’t create enough chances to stick with the USA. With the home crowd pushing them, the USA should prevail.
Over 2.5 Goals (-102)
The World Cup has been lit up with goals in the early portion of the tournament, and the USA looked like one of the most dangerous attacking teams against Paraguay. In fact, it was the USA’s first three-goal margin of victory at the World Cup since 1930.
All signs point to Pochettino’s team being able to carry forward that aggressive style of play against Australia. Turkiye failed to challenge Australia enough on the flanks and were static up front, but the USA has the speed out wide, and Balogun’s movement skills are impressive.
While another four-goal outing might be too much, we see the USA getting two or three goals, while its aggression should open the door for an Australia goal. USA games have hit over 2.5 goals 7 times out of the last 10, so it’s a worthwhile wager at BetMGM, one of the leading World Cup betting sites.
Nestory Irankunda (+360)
Balogun’s two-goal performance means the USA striker’s anytime goalscorer odds lead all players at +125. We don’t see that as great value, and we’re also inclined to stay away from Pulisic at +175 due to the danger of more limited playing time.
So, we’ll go with Irankunda at +360 after his breakout game against Turkiye. While Australia aren’t a lock to score, the USA’s defense is vulnerable. Irankunda’s speed will be a problem, and he should get chances for his second goal of the World Cup, especially on the counter.
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