The race for the Golden Boot looked to be among the best ever before the tournament began, with some of the greatest goalscorers of all time set to compete. But an explosion of goals from three star players during Tuesday’s slate of matches has ignited the competition for the 2026 World Cup’s leading scorer.
Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, and Erling Haaland wowed onlookers by combining for seven goals in their teams’ respective opening games of the tournament in North America.
The Argentinian star earned his first-ever World Cup hat trick (and had an early goal disallowed for offside) against Algeria, and in doing so, tied Miroslav Klose for the most World Cup goals ever with 16.
Messi entered the tournament with +1600 odds to be the tournament’s Golden Boot winner, but is now the odds-on favorite at +260.
Messi will still face significant competition from Mbappe, who ignited France with his first goal against Senegal following a scoreless first half. The Real Madrid dynamo became France’s all-time goalscorer in incredible style in stoppage time, firing in maybe the goal of the tournament so far from 30 yards out.
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Mbappe was the pre-tournament favorite at +650 after earning the award during the 2022 World Cup. Bolstered by the fact France are expected to make a deep run, the bookmakers have him right behind Messi at +300.
It won’t be a two-horse race for the Golden Boot if Erling Haaland has anything to say about it. While Messi and Mbappe produced moments of magic, Haaland used his signature poacher’s instinct to find the net twice against Iraq. In his first-ever World Cup game, the Man City striker headed in Norway’s opening goal before leaping on a misplaced backpass to the keeper for his second.
As a result, Haaland has seen his odds drop significantly from before the World Cup, going from +1400 to +900. Only Norway’s smaller chances of making it to the latter stages of the World Cup compared to France and Argentina are holding back his Golden Boot odds.
Elsewhere in the Golden Boot race, Germany’s Kai Havertz jumped from +3500 to +1600 after a brace in Sunday’s 7-1 win over Curacao. USA fans might be tempted to back Folarin Balogun after the striker scored twice in 19 minutes during a 4-1 victory over Paraguay. His odds have dropped from +125000 all the way down to +3500. Meanwhile, Lamine Yamal’s chances took a hit after Spain’s scoreless draw with Cape Verde.
Here is the current top 10 in odds from FanDuel, one of the top Golden Boot betting sites.
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