DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told investors last week the company was “basically tied” with FanDuel for the No. 1 spot in U.S. sports betting this quarter. The two have long been seen as 1A and 1B, with FanDuel in front, so the comment shows how far the gap has narrowed.
Third-quarter results from both companies support a very close race, and some analysts think DraftKings has edged ahead. The harder question is what a near-tie means for spending, profit and competition from prediction markets.
DraftKings reported approximately $13.9 billion in sports consumer volume during the third quarter and generated $783.6 million in sports-related revenue. Meanwhile, FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment reported roughly $12 billion in U.S. sportsbook handle and about $1 billion in sportsbook revenue.
State-level data cited by Citizens analysts points in the same direction. Across 13 states and Washington, D.C., DraftKings accounted for 37.4% of online sports betting handle in September compared to FanDuel’s 34.2%. On gross gaming revenue, the gap was even narrower at 35.8% versus 34.9%.
Those figures point toward DraftKings as the country’s largest online sports betting operator, a notable shift in a market where FanDuel has long held the crown.
Determining a true market leader is more complicated than comparing headline figures.
DraftKings’ volume totals include activity from its prediction market platform, while Flutter’s reported handle reflects sportsbook wagering only. FanDuel disclosed prediction market volume separately, reporting $119 million through FanDuel Predicts.
There is also the question of scope. The Citizens analysis relies on states that publicly report detailed market-share data, rather than the entire national market. That’s enough evidence to suggest the race has tightened dramatically, but not enough to declare a permanent changing of the guard.
What is clear is that neither operator is behaving like a company willing to surrender market share.
Flutter CEO Dan Taylor has made preserving FanDuel’s U.S. leadership an early priority. The company leaned harder into promotions during August and September and has expanded its rewards offerings while integrating sports betting and prediction markets into a single app experience.
DraftKings has taken a similar approach, with Robins emphasizing that the company remains committed to growing both its sportsbook and prediction market businesses.
Even if DraftKings has caught FanDuel, staying there may prove difficult.
Both companies are investing aggressively in prediction markets, where Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly control about 90% of the market. Robins recently said DraftKings already ranks as the third-largest exchange operator in the United States and intends to keep investing in the category.
Analysts at Citizens stated that Kalshi could spend roughly $2 billion on marketing in 2026, while Polymarket’s spend may approach $1 billion. Those figures illustrate why prediction markets have quickly become more than a product expansion. Prediction markets are becoming another expensive front in the fight for customer acquisition.
Taylor has argued that prediction markets are not meaningfully cannibalizing FanDuel’s sportsbook business. However, he acknowledged that the category is increasing competitive spending across the industry.
That pressure is already visible in DraftKings’ outlook. The company projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $175 million to $275 million, despite expecting its core business to generate between $875 million and $925 million. Much of that gap reflects the cost of building a larger presence in prediction markets.
A neck-and-neck race between DraftKings and FanDuel has historically meant a steady stream of promotions, product upgrades, and incentives for users. Investors will ask whether either company can gain meaningful share without sacrificing profitability in the process.
