Texas voters will elect a governor and lieutenant governor on November 3 whose positions could shape the next attempt to legalize sports betting and casinos. Prediction market prices favor both Republican incumbents, which would keep the state’s most influential gambling opponent in place.
Texas has no legal sports betting or Las Vegas-style commercial casinos. The Legislature returns for its regular session in January 2027.
Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick faces Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin. Patrick presides over the Senate, appoints committees and decides which bills are referred, and he has said expansion needs support from a majority of Senate Republicans before it moves. In 2023, he said he would not advance a sports betting amendment after the House passed it.
The House approved that amendment, House Joint Resolution 102, 101-42 on May 11, 2023, just above the 100 votes it needed. The Senate did not take it up. Goodwin supports letting Texans vote on casinos and online sports betting.
Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Abbott has previously said he had no personal problem with online sports betting but has more recently expressed concern about casino gaming. Hinojosa voted against HJR 102 in 2023 and has not released a sports betting or casino plan.
The race is not a simple partisan split. The governor can advocate for legislation but cannot place a constitutional amendment on the ballot or veto the resolution proposing one.
As of Nov. 2, Kalshi priced Abbott’s chance of winning at 63% and Hinojosa’s at 37%, while Polymarket showed roughly 64% and 35%. Patrick was at 75% on Kalshi and 77% on Polymarket. These are market-implied probabilities, not polls or vote projections, and trading volume in the lieutenant governor market was small.
The U.S. Senate race looks different. Kalshi gave Democrat James Talarico a 69% chance against Republican Ken Paxton, and Polymarket showed 70%. That pairing points toward a split result, with Republicans favored for governor and lieutenant governor while a Democrat is favored for the Senate.
Kalshi also showed a 78% chance of Republican control of the Texas House and 94% for the Texas Senate.
The expansion debate centers on sports betting and destination casinos, not online casino games. No candidate in the race has publicly proposed legalizing online casino play, and the 2023 amendment covered only sports wagering.
Patrick has focused on prediction markets this year. In March, he directed senators to study whether those platforms evade Texas gambling laws, and the Senate held a hearing on banning or regulating them in September.
A Texas constitutional amendment needs a two-thirds vote in both chambers before it goes to voters, so substantial Republican support would be required even if Goodwin wins. A Goodwin victory could change how the Senate handles gambling bills, but not who votes on them.
Even if Talarico wins, the offices that shape gambling policy could stay in Republican hands. Advocates also face the 2023 result: a House majority could pass an amendment and still see it stall.
Results on Tuesday will show whether Patrick or Goodwin controls the Senate agenda when the Legislature opens in January. The first signal will be whether a gambling resolution gets a committee hearing at all.
