MLB Picks Today: Backing the Yankees and Phillies-Nationals Over

Tough night last night. Let’s try to make it back with today’s MLB picks.

Season Record 38-37-1, -1.92 Units

Yankees at Tigers

Yankees ML (+127 Kalshi)

The Yankees don’t get plus money all that often, but they also don’t face two-time defending Cy Young winners too frequently either.

They get that today as Tigers ace Tarik Skubal takes the ball. He just returned from six weeks on the shelf after surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow, and that recovery was basically record time. He and his team had every reason to get him back quickly. He’s a pending free agent in line for a record payday for a pitcher and the Tigers need him to either salvage their tiny playoff hopes or as trade bait.

But did he come back too soon?

It’s only two starts, but he’s lasted just 10.1 IP and pitched to a 4.35 ERA and 1.35 WHIP vs. 2.70 and 0.95 in 7 starts before the injury. I certainly expect him to become Peak Skubal again, I just don’t know when. Obviously no one does. Well I shouldn’t say no one; the market is pricing him pretty highly since the Yankees are the much better team. They have a 118 wRC+ vs. lefties, 2nd in MLB. Who needs Aaron Judge when you have Paul Goldschmidt? He’s slashing a monstrous .397/.482/.740 vs. southpaws with 6 homes in 85 PA’s. The Yankees have gone 18-9 vs. lefty starters though with just a 3.9% ROI since they’re typically favored.

The start a lefty of their own today in Ryan Weathers and he’s been pretty good with a 4.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and 20.5% K-BB%. The Tigers are not great vs. lefties, with a 96 wRC+ and a 9-15 record and -27.5% ROI. They get a bit platoon happy and take out Kerry Carpenter and Colt Keith in favor of a couple league average bats and it just doesn’t really work. Let’s play for Skubal to take a little more time shaking the rust off and go with the Yankees to win.

Phillies at Nationals

F5 Over 5.5 (-120 bet365)

Aaron Nola (5.71 ERA, 1.48 WHP) vs. Miles Mikolas (5.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), need I say more? OK, I’ll say a little more. The Nats surprisingly have one of the best offenses in MLB. Their F5 overs have gone 36-20 for a 21.8% ROI vs.righty starters and 36-23, 16% ROI when they’re ML underdogs. These teams combined for 23 runs last night so they’re both entering the game with some offensive momentum. The only downer is that Kyle Schwarber missed the game last night, though arguably the Phillies did just fine without him as they accounted for 14 of those runs. I expect the fireworks to continue.