The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced Friday that it has fined former New York congressman George Santos in relation to “manipulative activity” that the former Polymarket influencer participated in on a 2026 State of the Union Kalshi appearance market.
In an official statement, the CFTC said that “Santos must disgorge the profits he made from his unlawful trading totaling $17,569.98 and pay a civil monetary penalty of $17,500. Santos agreed to a cease and desist from further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations. Under the order, a three-year trading ban is imposed on Santos.”
Earlier this year, Santos, who served in the US House of Representatives in 2023 for New York’s 3rd Congressional District, was a paid influencer for Polymarket. As a result of the Kalshi SOTU appearance market scandal, Polymarket has since cut ties with Santos.
According to the order agreed upon by George Santos and the CFTC, “the order finds that between February 12, 2026, and February 25, 2026, Santos traded a contract titled ‘Who will attend the State of the Union?’ and more specifically, traded on whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union or not.”
The CFTC adds that “while buying and selling positions in this market, Santos posted on social media about his plans to attend or not attend the SOTU. In his social media posts, Santos made a series of material misrepresentations and omissions about whether he would attend the SOTU. After these posts, the SOTU contract prices moved in a direction that was favorable to Santos’ positions which allowed him to make over $17,500.”
Ultimately, Santos did not attend the 2026 State of the Union address. In June, NPR reported that Santos’ activity was under investigation by the Department of Justice.
The “manipulative activity” Santos engaged in brings influencer-based markets into the spotlight at a time when the CFTC is establishing rules concerning its “exclusive” oversight of prediction exchanges. It also presents a question regarding whether the federal agency will decide to authorize event contracts that are linked to how one or more influencers may act (or what they might say) at any given time.
Platforms including XO Market focus primarily on community-driven markets. Such prediction markets could pose regulatory headaches for the CFTC and heartaches for influencer followers if scandals similar to the George Santos Kalshi SOTU appearance market come to light.
Although Santos had a promotional agreement with Polymarket during the time he was “engaging in manipulative activity” on Kalshi, community-driven markets may only offer NIL compensation to a small portion of the influencers who are listed as primary actors within those prediction markets.
For now, George Santos is banned from making prediction market trades for the next three years. Kalshi is working on a reimbursement plan to compensate individuals who bought “yes” contracts based on Santos’ stated intention to appear at the 2026 SOTU.
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