In an ironic prediction market twist brought to light by CNN senior reporter Marshall Cohen over the weekend, CFTC-regulated exchange ProphetX has self-certified prediction markets based on outcomes linked to the 2026 Circa Survivor Pool in Nevada.
ProphetX’s self-certifications, originally filed on October 15th, will allow the platform’s traders to buy and sell “yes/no” contracts on numerous outcomes that are related to the state-licensed sports wagering contest offered by Circa Sports in Nevada.
The Circa Sports Survivor Pro Football Contest is a Nevada-licensed sports wagering game that requires in-person registration at a Circa Sportsbook kiosk located within that state. Participants can buy multiple $1,000 entries to choose one team to win throughout 20 “legs” of the 2026 NFL regular season and compete for a guaranteed prize pool of $20 million.
Once an entry contains an incorrect selection, the entry is eliminated from the pool. The caveat is that players can only choose a single team once throughout the course of the 20 regular-season “legs,” which include special carveouts for Thanksgiving Day and Christmas games that appear on the NFL’s schedule. Upon the conclusion of Week 18, all “surviving” entries will share a minimum $20 million prize pool. Since the Circa Sports contest doesn’t charge any “rake,” all proceeds from the buy-ins will go directly toward the final payout(s).
On Saturday afternoon, Marshall Cohen posted a number of quotes that were provided to him by Circa Sports owner Derek Stevens.
According to Cohen, “Circa owner Derek Stevens told me ‘we have no affiliation’ with the prediction markets about his survivor pool. ‘It’s humbling that our contest got so big’ that it’s drawing this kind of attention,’ he said. But this doesn’t change his ‘strong opposition’ to prediction markets, which he insists are run by ‘thieves.’ (He said he doesn’t plan on taking legal action against ProphetX.)”
A review of the ProphetX user interface early Monday morning found no existing event contracts linked to the NGCB-licensed Circa Sports contest. However, by rule, ProphetX can technically activate self-certified prediction markets that it submits to the CFTC one business day after filing.
Depending on which side of the prediction market legal battle one identifies with, the decision by ProphetX to self-certify event contracts that are directly linked to a sports wagering contest in Nevada may be defined as “innovative” or “inappropriate.”
With thousands of confirmed active entries, the Circa Sports contest has undoubtedly become a hit among sports bettors who reside in or visit Nevada. Latching on to a popular state-authorized sports betting contest and turning it into numerous federally regulated prediction markets could potentially allow out-of-state ProphetX users to “forecast” separate outcomes tied to the Circa Sports NFL Survivor Pool.
The irony is that the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) is currently engaged in legal battles against prediction markets that have resulted in both ProphetX and Kalshi restricting their sports contracts within the state’s borders. Stevens’ “no affiliation” statement to CNN’s Marshall Cohen confirms that ProphetX has not officially partnered with Circa Sports and, by extension, is not compensating the Nevada-licensed sportsbook for its use of Circa Sports’ contest branding.
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