We’ve created this quick guide to get you up to speed with Formula 1 prediction markets. Well worth a look for anyone looking to add an extra dimension to their enjoyment of F1 racing.
Here you’ll see what prediction markets are and learn how they apply to Formula 1. We’ll highlight three of the best brands for making your F1 predictions and even give you some handy tips to keep in mind. So that even if you don’t know who’s exactly going to win the big race, you won’t make any embarrassing newbie mistakes.
If you are new to this whole prediction market craze, we should give you a brief grounding in what it’s all about. Prediction markets are where you make your predictions on real-world events, and then back up those predictions by purchasing the relevant event contracts. So in the case of F1 prediction markets, you might see event contracts for the following things:
Each of these questions will feature answers such as Yes or No, or even a range of drivers/teams, and the event contract for each answer will have a price that sits somewhere between $0.01 and $0.99. The pricing is dictated by the trading activity of people at the prediction site, and it works out so that the more expensive event contracts are those more likely to be correct.
Once you have purchased an event contact, you are free to sell it at any time, or you can wait until the event has settled. If your event contract proves to be correct, you will be able to redeem it at a value of $1.00, meaning that you’ll have made a profit. However, if your event contact proves to be wrong, it won’t be worth anything and you will have made a loss.
Let’s imagine that you wanted to make a prediction on who would win the next Belgian Grand Prix. You went to one of our recommended prediction markets sites and saw the following event contracts:
From these, you think that Kimi Antonelli had the best chance of winning and you bought the relevant event contract for $0.41. Note that this represents the fact that the aggregated trading of other people on the site thought that he had a 41% chance of winning.
Antonelli went on to win the race, and your contract could now be redeemed at a rate of $1.00 meaning that there would be a $0.59 profit. Note that if you’d opted for Hamilton to win and he’d won, you would have made a larger profit of $0.85 as the cost of the contract was cheaper at $0.15. Just be sure to factor those negligible commission fees, regardless of what you are trading.
You should find that most prediction markets sites will give you a vast range of ways to make your predictions about everything to do with Formula 1. Here are just some of the various F1 prediction markets that you might come across:
Obviously Formula 1 is one of countless sports prediction markets that you can trade. So why should you consider making your predictions for this motor sport and not something like football or basketball? Well here are the main pros and cons to consider:
We took an in-depth look at the best prediction markets apps to see which brands offer you the best coverage of Formula 1. Here are the three brands that managed to outshine their rivals:
| F1 prediction markets site | Typical F1 event contracts |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | Grand Prix winner, podium finisher, top 10 finishers, top 5 finishers, fastest lap, top constructor, Drivers Champion, Constructors Champion, Action of the Year Award, next team, retirement, F1 team from China before next year |
| Polymarket | Grand Prix driver winner, pole position, F1 Drivers’ Champion, retirement, top race constructor, safety car, red flag, fastest lap, head-to-heads, podium finish, Action of the Year |
| Crypto.com | Constructors’ Champion, Drivers’ Champion |
You can trust Kalshi to let you trade prediction markets on pretty much anything that could happen in a Formula 1 race or even an entire season. Typical markets for a standard Grand Prix include race winner, fastest lap, podium finish, top 10 finish and so on.
There’s also an impressive range of F1 futures markets with all of the trades for things like Drivers’ Champion, Constructors’ Champion and Action of the Year Award winner. However, Kalshi really excels for letting you make your predictions on those behind-the-scenes events such as who’ll be certain drivers’ next team or even whether there will be a Chinese F1 team by the end of the year. Thought-provoking stuff and perfect for adding a touch of intrigue to the F1 calendar.
This is the prediction markets site you should go to if you want the best coverage of each individual F1 Grand Prix. This is because Polymarket excels with its markets for things like race-winner, pole position and fastest lap, and then it even has the power to let you trade on anything from safety cars and red flags.
Polymarket can also be counted on for serving up lots of interesting futures markets that go beyond the standard Drivers’ and Constructors’ Champion trades. After all, you can trade on things like which F1 driver will retire or even who will claim the Action of the Year Award.
This brand might be better known for being a crypto exchange, but Crypto.com has also proven to be more than capable of putting on some great F1 prediction markets. In particular, the brand’s coverage of futures markets like the Drivers’ Championship and the Constructors’ Championship are second to none. Just note that the markets for each individual Grand Prix race might be a little light.
Elsewhere you will find everything else that you should be looking for in a prediction markets site. From the CFTC-regulation to the handy charts and graphs showing you the price movements of the F1 markets, it should all add up to giving you the confidence you need to successfully trade on Formula 1.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
You’ll find that each of the above brands has different kinds of F1 prediction markets, but apart from that, they should usually work in a similar way. As a result, you can expect to simply take the following steps to get straight into the trading action:
Load up your preferred prediction markets site by clicking on the relevant link for the brand in the banners of this page
Set up your customer account by providing the required personal information in the registration form
Log into your account and then verify your identity by submitting some kind of government-issued photo ID
Make an opening deposit with one of the available payment methods
Navigate to the prediction markets lobby and then click on the Sports tab and then the F1 tab
Browse the available markets for Formula 1
Click on the event contract that matches your own prediction
Select how many of that contract you want to purchase
Make your trade
From here, it’ll be just a matter of watching the F1 Grand Prix race or season unfold and you will notice that the value of your event contract will fluctuate according to what actually happens on the race circuits. Remember that you can either wait until the event has settled or aim to sell your contract early for a profit or before things get too bad.
It’s fair to say that nobody truly knows what’s going to happen in a Grand Prix, never mind a whole F1 season. With that in mind, be sure to check out the following tips to avoid making too many mistakes with your trades:
Given the sheer spectacle of F1 racing, it can be all too easy to get caught up in the emotion and blindly back your favorite drivers or the more popular racing teams. This is something that’s even easier to do at those prediction market sites that let you see how other people are trading and you can even read their comments. So best keep your blinkers on and do your own research rather than following the crowd. At least this way you’ll actually learn something from your mistakes.
Few sports have experienced so many rule changes in the past few years as Formula 1 and it’s essential that you keep up with developments. This is all the more true with prediction markets for things like safety cars, and you’ll also need to be aware of any technical changes that could have an impact on the fortunes of your favorite F1 team.
You’ll notice that certain drivers seem to perform better on certain race circuits. Whether it’s the tight corners of Monaco or fast straights of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, you’ll need to understand how each circuit could impact the fortunes of the drivers. After all, just because a driver has won the last three races, doesn’t mean that they are going to win the next – especially if it’s a circuit that they have had a torrid time on in the past.
You should also take the time to carefully research how the race cars have been preparing for each Grand Prix. This means following the news reports and even checking into social media. By doing this, you will be able to see which F1 teams have been benefitting from the latest technical requirements, and discover who has been struggling with the changes. After all, anyone who’s seen the recent fate of Red Bull will know that it can take just a few changes in anything from the permitted engines to the overall team morale to have dramatic impact on what happens in the next Grand Prix or even the whole F1 season.
We should also remind you of the basic fact that prediction markets trading is risky by nature and this is all the more true in those notoriously unpredictable Grand Prix races. After all, you have way more than just two competitors to predict like you would with other sports. As a result, you will want to be careful to set a budget of what you don’t mind losing and stick to it. This way any losses won’t hurt too much and you’ll see that it’s always better to trade responsibly.
We have shown you that there is nothing to be worried about when it comes to trading prediction markets for F1. After all, each of the sites and apps listed here has made the trading experience wonderfully simple, and this means that you can get down to the fun of making your predictions in a stress-free and safe manner.
Just remember that nobody can tell the future, and this is especially true when it comes to those chaotic F1 races. So be sure to hit any of the links for the approved prediction markets brands in the banners of this page, register your account and set your limits so as to always trade responsibly.
You should be able to download all of the prediction markets apps featured in this guide from the App Store and Google Play. Each app should be free to download and it should automatically install on your device in just a few seconds.
Good question, and it ultimately depends on the race, the drivers and the surrounding context. We like to keep it safe by only making trades on those markets that have a predicted chance of winning of at least 60%, as some wins are always better than none.
You’ll usually have to be at least 18 years old to trade F1 prediction markets and this is something that’ll have to be verified. Just so you know, this is the same minimum age limit at MLB prediction markets sites and all other sites of its kind.
In theory, yes, but in reality, such promo offers can be hard to find at prediction markets sites. We’ll let you know whenever one of these deals emerges by featuring it in the banners of this page.
This is where you simply make a prediction on which driver will win the F1 Drivers’ Championship or which team will win the Constructors’ Championship, and then back that up by purchasing the relevant event contract. If your prediction proves to be correct, you’ll have made a profit from the increased value of your contract.
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