On MLB prediction markets, you can trade event contracts that are tied to the possible outcomes of a baseball game or other future event. This includes futures like American League, National League, and World Series winners.
If you correctly forecast the outcomes, you’ll win money, meaning that there’s a high risk of losing money if you’re wrong. The best three places to trade event contracts for MLB games and future events are Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. Using our expertise, we’ll explain what makes these platforms the right fit for different types of traders.
On all sports prediction markets, you can buy and sell contracts corresponding to the outcomes of future events. If you buy and hold event contracts that are tethered to a correct prediction, you will make a profit based on your outlay. Make an inaccurate forecast, and you’ll lose all of the money that you spent.
Looking specifically at the MLB, the events that you can trade predictions on include games, World Series Winners, awards, and even offseason things like player trades and the MLB Draft. Here’s how it works in simple step-by-step terms:
Create a prediction market trading account in Kalshi, Polymarket, or Crypto.com
Browse the selection of MLB prediction markets
Buy event contracts related to the prediction you think will happen
Wait and watch the event taking place
When the market is resolved, you’ll discover if you lost or won money based on the accuracy of your predictions.
As we said, the way that you can trade on these baseball prediction markets is by buying and selling event contracts. In the run-up to and during an MLB game or future event, the contract pieces are always set between $0.01 and $0.99.
The prices roughly reflect the chance percentage that real-time market opinion gives the related outcome of an event happening. In other words, if the market gives the Cubs a 51% chance of beating the Orioles in their next regular-season MLB game, the Cubs’ event contracts would cost approximately $0.51.
On the other side, the Orioles would have a 49% chance according to market opinion, and therefore the associated event contracts would cost roughly $0.49 each. We use the term roughly deliberately, as trading activity and other market influences can move the contract prices slightly out of line with the probability percentage.
Most MLB event contracts are binary, meaning that there are “Yes” and “No” positions that you can trade. The decision of which one to pick is fairly straightforward:
To give you an idea of how the prediction markets work and how the event contract prices can slip away slightly from the chance percentage, here’s a real-time example that we’ve taken from Kalshi.
| 🧢 Teams | 📈 Chance | ✅ Yes | ❌ No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs: | 51% | $0.53 | $0.48 |
| Baltimore Orioles: | 49% | $0.48 | $0.53 |
If we use the Cubs’ Yes contracts as an example, they have been selling at $0.53, even though the Cubs only have a 51% chance of winning. While most of those looking to buy recently have bid $0.50 or $0.51, most sellers have been asking for $0.53 or more.
As “Cubs: Yes” contract sales have been on the up, the buyers have been more willing to meet the sellers’ lowest price demand than the other way around.
Once the game or event has finished and the prediction market is resolved, this is what happens to the closing prices of all associated event contracts:
This means that if you have bought and held contracts tied to a correct outcome, you’ll make a profit. If not, you’ll have lost all of the money you spent on contracts, as we’ve explained previously.
For example, if you had purchased “Cubs: Yes” contracts at $0.53 each and the Cubs went on to win the game, you’d make a $0.47 profit on each contract:
We’ve explained how these prediction markets work, complete with examples. With that out of the way, he is our expert summary of the pros and cons:
If you’re looking for a place to trade MLB and other baseball event contracts, we’ve picked three platforms from our list of prediction market sites to recommend. We’ve selected these based specifically on what they have to offer baseball fans in terms of MLB prediction markets, trading volume, fees, and more.
| ⚾ Baseball prediction market site | 🧑⚖ CFTC-regulated | 🔞 Age limit | 🏆 Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Yes ✅ | 18+ | Range of MLB prediction markets |
| Polymarket | Yes ✅ | 18+ | MLB Prediction market trading volume |
| Crypto.com | Yes ✅ | 18+ | Lowest fees for MLB event contracts |
Kalshi was the first prediction market to launch in the US and remains one of the most popular. Throughout the regular MLB season, you’ll usually find over 320 prediction markets, including games, World Series Winners, MVP, player props, and more. There are also specials like player retirement markets and the Mid-Season Cup.
The trading volume is usually quite high, with regular-season games seeing five- and six-figure volume in USD. Higher-profile games like the playoffs and World Series Winner futures prediction markets usually have trading volume that’s in the millions.
As well as the total real-time trading volume, you can also see the exact recent trades in the Order Book. Moreover, if you click the dropdown button on each market, you can see the asking prices and recent bids for the event contracts. This gives you clear indicators of how the market is moving and why.
Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a financial exchange. To legally sign up and trade here, you must be over 18 and a legal US resident. That said, the platform is either outright prohibited or partially restricted if you’re a resident of Minnesota, Nevada, Arizona, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, or Ohio.
Polymarket has a US-exclusive app that you can download from Google Play and the App Store, where it has an impressive 4.8-star rating. Among the main prediction markets, you’ll find an MLB section that’s highlighted by the official logo.
During the regular season, there are always around 120 MLB prediction markets, including games, futures, and specials. While it can’t quite match the massive market selection offered at Kalshi, this is still impressive compared with most other trading platforms. Moreover, Polymarket now has a larger user base than Kalshi.
More users and fewer MLB markets mean that the trading volume is always exponentially higher. For example, at the time of writing, the MLB World Series prediction market has $35 million in volume on Polymarket, which dwarfs the $8 million volume at Kalshi.
The Polymarket US app is separate from the brand’s international prediction market site and is regulated by the CFTC as a financial exchange. Like Kalshi, you can trade on the Polymarket app as a US resident aged 18+. However, some bans and partial restrictions apply, so we recommend checking the T&Cs for up-to-date information.
Crypto.com has a small selection of MLB prediction markets, covering all regular season games, World Series and Conference winners, and the MVP Awards. However, it has a decent trading volume for a platform of its size, and the simple, user-friendly interface is much more beginner-friendly than the two apps we’ve reviewed above.
Additionally, it’s the only prediction market we’ve come across that offers $10 event contracts for MLB and other sports events. These are priced between $0.01 and $9.99 and pay out at $10 each if you win. If you want to keep your larger trades tidier, these are ideal.
The fees are also more favorable here, as the $0.02 per $1.00 event contract fees are waived entirely if you hold the contracts to the event’s conclusion. The $10 contracts have a $0.20 fee, half of which is waived if you hold them until the market is resolved.
Crypto.com offers prediction markets to its US users aged 18+ through its regular investment website and its dedicated OG prediction markets app. Both of these platforms are CFTC-regulated and are open to US residents aged 18+, except in Arizona and New York. Additionally, MLB and other sports prediction markets are excluded for traders in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Whether you’re trading MLB or F1 prediction markets, the basics of the registration and KYC process remain the same. While each platform has a slightly different process, the legal requirements for verification according to the CFTC regulations are equal across the board.
Here’s a step-by-step guide to show you how to get started:
Choose – Pickana MLB prediction market platform from our top three recommendations
Visit – Follow the banners on this page to the prediction market site
Download – Install the trading app if you wish to trade MLB markets on your smartphone or tablet (the app is the only option for Polymarket US)
Start – Open the registration form by clicking on the “Sign Up” button
Register – Enter your email address or select one of the alternative signup options (Google, Apple ID, etc.)
Security – Create a secure password and set up 2FA protocols like biometric login and security questions
Information – Provide your full name, address, and date of birth
Verification – Verify your email address and US phone number
KYC – Enter the final four digits of your SSN and upload your photo ID alongside a selfie (you may be asked for other documents later)
Submit – Submit the registration form and wait to get verified
Deposit – Fund your prediction market trading account using one of the available payment options
Trade – Start buying and selling MLB event contracts for games, futures, and special prediction markets
As we have established, trading any type of prediction market is risky. The same rules apply to MLB prediction trading, regardless of how well you think that you know your stuff when it comes to pro baseball.
To help you be safe,m have a fun time, and make better forecasts and trades, we’ve put together this list of our top five expert tips:
First of all, you shouldn’t rush into things and sign up for the first platform that tickles your fancy. If you’ve assessed the risk involved and still believe that prediction market trading is for you, take the time to consider which trading exchange is right for you carefully. If you’re an experienced trader who wants a diverse selection of markets and data tools, Kalshi and Polymarket are ideal. However, if you’re a casual trader or a complete newbie, Crypto.com could be the better option.
To ensure that you don’t fall into the trap of serious financial worry, only deposit and trade with a total amount that you can comfortably afford to lose. Use the total budget to spread across different trades, rather than putting all of your eggs in one basket. Prediction market trading should be viewed as a hobby and never as a realistic means of investment or making money.
As well as watching MLB games and highlights, you should study player stats and follow the news for trades and dressing room bust-ups. Additionally, use the market tracking tools and the trading volume order book to assess which way the market is moving. All of this can help you to find value and market overreactions to exploit.
Baseball is an emotional game, and most of us have a strong passion for the team that we support. However, prediction market trading on the MLB is the opposite of that; it’s a pragmatic activity that requires logical thinking. With that in mind, it’s best to avoid trading on teams and games that you are emotionally invested in.
Many new traders on prediction markets think mostly about the MLB, which is, of course, extremely important. However, if you get better at reading and assessing the market, you can become a better trader. This involves knowing when to sell and hold your event contracts, or when to take advantage of a market overreaction to an on-the-field incident.
In summary, MLB prediction markets enable you to buy and sell event contracts that are tied to all possible outcomes of an MLB game or future event. You can win money by selling early for a higher price than you bought the contracts for, or by holding your contracts until the event’s conclusion and being correct.
Of course, this means that you can also lose money by making inaccurate predictions or by finding yourself having to sell early to cut your losses. If you are comfortable with the risks, you can sign up to Kalshi, Polymarket, or Crypto.com using the relevant links and banners on this page.
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two best prediction market platforms for MLB trading in terms of market selection, trading volume, and data tracking tools, among other things. However, the simplicity of the Crypto.com platform, despite its small market offering, may be suitable for new and casual traders.
MLB prediction markets work by allowing you to buy and sell event contracts that are tied to the possible outcomes of an MLB game or other future baseball-related event. If you make correct predictions, you win money, and you lose money if your forecasts are inaccurate.
MLB event contracts pay out at $1.00 each if they are tied to a prediction that is correct once the event has concluded. As you always pay between $0.01 and $0.99 for the contracts before the event, you will have a profit if you have held a position on an accurate prediction. On the other side, incorrect event contracts close at $0.00, giving you a loss if you are wrong.
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