Anyone looking to get to grips with Super Bowl prediction markets will need to check out this guide. After all, we’ll show you what they are and how you can trade them effectively.
We’ll start by outlining the basics of prediction markets and see how they apply to the biggest game in football. You’ll also see three of the prediction market brands who can be trusted for the quality of their Super Bowl event contracts. Plus with some expert tips to help you out, you’ll have all you need to get started.
So a Super Bowl prediction market is where you make a prediction about something that’ll happen in the Super Bowl and then purchase an event contract that corresponds with that prediction. These contracts are available at prediction markets sites and apps, and they will tend to ask you questions like the following examples:
For each of these questions, you will pick an event contract that matches your answer. The pricing of this contract will be based upon the previous aggregated trading at the prediction markets site, and will be priced somewhere between $0.01 and $0.99.
The cheaper contracts will be those that are less likely to be correct, whereas the more expensive ones are more likely to be correct. If your predicted contract proves to be correct at the end of the event, it can then be redeemed at a rate of $1.00 and you’ll have made a profit. Just remember that there will usually be a modest commission fee for each trade you make.
Now we know what Super Bowl event contracts are, it’s time to give you a quick example of how you might use one. Here’s what might happen:
You visit one of the prediction markets sites listed in the banners of this page, sign up and make a deposit
You browse the markets for this year’s Super Bowl and see that there are contracts priced at $0.18 for the LA Rams to win
This represents an 18% chance of the Rams winning the Super Bowl which you think is realistic, and so you purchase one of the contracts
Now you watch the Super Bowl and see the Rams winning the game
This means that you can now redeem your contract at a value of $1.00 and you’ll have made a profit of $0.88, minus any trading costs
You should find that all good prediction market sites will give you seemingly limitless ways to trade on the Super Bowl. Here are just some of the most common event contracts that you’ll find for the big game:
| Super Bowl prediction market | Example |
|---|---|
| Super Bowl winner | Seattle Seahawks to win this years’ Super Bowl |
| Super MVP | Matthew Stafford to be declared the Super Bowl MVP |
| Player props | Josh Allen to throw more than three touchdown passes |
| Other props | Who will sing the national anthem? |
Obviously the Super Bowl is just one event that you’ll be able to predict at most NFL prediction market sites. So why should you trade on the biggest game in football and not something else? Well here are the main pros and cons of sticking with the Super Bowl:
While all decent sports prediction market sites will cover the Super Bowl, some brands will do it better than others. So here are three of the best prediction markets sites to check out the next time that the big game comes around:
Given that Kalshi is the biggest prediction markets brand in the US, it makes sense that it should be your number one choice for your Super Bowl predictions. You can sign up here from all 50 states and find that the brand is already taking many trades on who’ll win the next Super Bowl.
In fact at the time of writing this guide (mid-July) there was already $41,000 traded on who the next Super Bowl winner would be, and this indicates that you should always get plenty of liquidity for your trades here.
Not only that, but you can count on Kalshi for serving up lots of intriguing markets for all of the props for the big game itself. From how many touchdowns and sacks there are to who’ll be the Super Bowl MVP, it’ll all give you plenty more ways to think about the biggest game in football.
This brand has only been available in the US since late 2025, and it’s already nearly caught up with the likes of Kalshi in terms of popularity. Much of this is down to just how creative Polymarket is with its prediction markets, and this is something that should apply to the next Super Bowl.
Naturally, you will be able to predict all of the normal things like who will win the big game, but the props here should be especially interesting. This means that you might be able to do things like predict how long the national anthem will be, what will happen during the half-time show, or even what color the Gatorade that gets dumped over the winning head coach will be. Perfect for spicing up what promises to be an already thrilling football encounter.
This brand might be better known for its crypto exchange, but Crypto.com has actually got one of the best prediction markets sites in the land. You’ll swiftly recognize this fact when you fire up its Football page and see the range of event contracts available for the Super Bowl.
These tend to focus on the major markets for things like Super Bowl winner and Super Bowl MVP, but you’ll be able to make your trades on these contracts over 200 days in advance of the big game. There’s also a wealth of detailed charts and graphs that’ll allow you to make your Super Bowl predictions with a touch more confidence.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Anyone who’s used a prediction markets site before should have a pretty simple time in trading their event contracts for the Super Bowl. But just in case you are new to this kind of thing, here is a quick rundown of what you need to do:
Fire up any of the prediction markets sites listed in the banners of this guide by tapping on the relevant link
Create your user account by adding in basic personal information such as your email address and date of birth into the registration form
Submit your application, log into your account and then verify your identity by submitting the required documents
Navigate to the cashier section and then make a deposit with one of the various payment methods such as cards, ewallets, bank transfers or cryptos
Go to the prediction markets lobby and then navigate to the Super Bowl section via the Sports and Football tabs
Browse the markets and click on the event contract that matches your Super Bowl prediction
Enter in how many of those contracts you wish to purchase and execute your trade
Once you have done this, your payment should go through and you will find that the contracts have been added to your portfolio. From here you will see their price moving to reflect the behaviors of other traders on the site, and you’ll be able to decide whether to hang on to your duration until the event is settled, or whether you ought to try and trade it in early.
Now you know what to do, you’ll be ready to make your trades. Just be sure to consider the following tips to avoid making too many rookie errors:
While it’s nice to be able to make your Super Bowl predictions many months ahead of the big game, it can be risky. After all, all it would take is for there to be an injury to a star quarterback and then that team would face a much tougher challenge. So keep your predictions to the short-term to have a better chance of winning.
There is something about the Super Bowl that can cause even the most talented players to crack under pressure. This is why you’ll want to do a bit of research to see which teams can cope with the sheer expectation of this massive game and make your trades accordingly.
It’s also worth setting a limit on how much you are willing to lose, as doing this should ensure that any losses don’t hurt too much. After all, big upsets can happen in the big game.
We have shown you that it’s actually pretty easy to make your predictions on the Super Bowl and then purchase the relevant event contracts for them at one of our trusted prediction markets sites. The whole thing can be done from most states in the US, and it’s sure to add an extra dimension to your enjoyment of the big game.
While it’s easy to make your predictions, it’s quite something else to actually get them right. As such you’ll need to be on guard to trade responsibly by setting budgets, being realistic and so on. But as long as you don’t forget that, you should be good to click on any of the links for the prediction markets sites in the banners of this page to sign up and make your Super Bowl predictions.
It’s highly likely, as prediction markets sites are generally available all over the US. Just note that there are exceptions, such as the fact that you cannot trade sports contracts at Crypto.com from the states of New York, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Illinois.
You’ll usually have to be at least 18 years old to sign up to a prediction markets site, and you’ll have to verify this fact with some government-issued photo ID. Some sites will also require you to submit a selfie holding such documentation.
Sure thing, as they have all been made mobile-optimized so that you can use them from the browser of any modern smartphone or tablet. Not only that, but all of the brands in the banners of this guide even have their own prediction market apps that offer you an even more convenient way to trade.
In theory, yes, but in reality, it can be tricky to find prediction markets who give you free credit to trade with. However, we’ll be sure to update the banners of this page with the relevant deals if they become available.
Because we have made sure that they are all regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As such, you will get all of the protection you need against things like fraud, insider trading and price manipulation. Plus these sites are all fully encrypted and feature a variety of responsible trading tools.
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