On soccer prediction markets, you can trade event contracts on the outcomes of matches, leagues, tournaments, and other soccer-related events. You can also find things like player props, goal totals, and award winners, like Golden boots and the Ballon d’Or.
You can win money by correctly predicting the outcome, but you’ll lose money if you get it wrong. Soccer predictions are available on all prediction markets sites, but Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com stand out as the three best options for US traders. In this guide, we’ll cover the basics of these prediction markets and explain why we recommend these sites.
Soccer prediction markets allow you and other traders to buy and sell event contracts for matches and other soccer-related outcomes and events. These contracts are tied to the various possible outcomes, meaning that you will make a profit if your forecast is correct.
Of course, the counter to that is that you’ll lose all of the money that you’ve spent on the event contracts if your predictions are wrong. Sports prediction market sites don’t price and sell you the contracts themselves. Instead, they match your trade with an equal counterpart and take a fee.
Here’s a basic rundown of how soccer event trading works:
Create your account – Sign up to one of our recommended soccer prediction market sites
Verification and KYC – Complete full KYC and verify your account with a photo ID and your SSN
Deposit funds – Fund your account using one of the available payment methods
Buy event contracts – Purchase event contracts related to a soccer outcome that you think will happen
Market resolution – Once the match or other event is over, you’ll make a profit if the market resolves in your favor, and a loss if your forecast was wrong
As with NBA prediction markets, the prices of event contracts for soccer outcomes will always cost you between $0.01 and $0.99. The prices roughly reflect the probability of the tethered outcomes based on real-time market probability.
For example, if the USMNT had a 50% chance of winning their next match according to market opinion, the event contract would cost $0.50, give or take. By the same token, the contracts tied to the opposite outcome (the USNMNT not winning) would also cost you around $0.50 each.
As your trade needs an equal counterpart to execute, the expected price can change by the time the trade is executed. This is yet another reason why soccer prediction market trading is considered to be a high-risk activity.
The majority of soccer event contracts are binary, meaning that you have “Yes” and “No” options. Knowing which one to buy is fairly simple. Let’s take our USMNT winning their next match as an example:
The payout structure for soccer predictions is fairly easy to understand. As soon as the market is resolved, the event contracts that are tied to the correct outcome close at $1.00, and those tied to all of the incorrect outcomes close at $0.00.
As the event contracts initially cost between $0.01 and $0.99, this guarantees you a profit if your predictions are correct and a loss if they aren’t. If you had spent $0.50 on event contracts, this would have given you a $0.50 profit if you were correct and a $0.50 loss per contract if you weren’t.
Of course, as we’ll explain when we look at the best sites, trading fees also need to be taken into account. Where applicable, fees will materially reduce your profits and increase your losses.
Once you have purchased event contracts for a soccer prediction market, one option is to hold them until the match or event has concluded. The other option that you have is to sell them early.
Usually, there are two circumstances in which it’s good to sell:
The issue that you may face in both of these circumstances is a lack of buyers. It could be the case that the price you want to sell for changes on the market by the time you find a buyer.
We’ve done enough talking, so now we’d like to provide you with a visual example to show you how these prediction markets work for soccer. To that, here’s a 1×2 moneyline prediction market for a soccer match between Mexico and England:
| ⚽ Outcome: | 🇲🇽 Mexico wins | 🤝 Tie | 🏴 England wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💲 Contract price: | $0.31 | $0.31 | $0.40 |
Here you can see that the most likely outcome is an England away victory at 40%, with the Mexico home win and the tie equally as probable at around 31%.
You may have noticed that 40% + 31% + 31% = 102%, which is an impossible total. However, the extra $0.02 on the total contract price is due to market movement.
At the time of writing, Mexico and Tie contracts are seeing a lot more bids, so England’s price has gone down to try to balance trades.
If the match that you are trading on is a knockout game, the prediction market will always be resolved based on the 90-minute outcome. For instance, if the above match were tied after 90 minutes and went to extra time and penalties, the tie contracts would pay out at $1.00, with the other two resolving to $0.00.
This would happen regardless of which team eventually won during extra time or in the penalty shootout. If you want to trade on outcomes with the penalty shootout and extra time included, Kalshi and Polyamrekt have specific prediction markets for this.
We’ve explained in detail how these prediction markets work, so now let’s summarize the pros and cons.
As it’s the most popular sport in the world, most prediction market platforms offer at least some soccer markets. However, We’ve picked out the three best prediction market sites for trading soccer event contracts here in the US:
| 📈 Prediction market site | 🇺🇸 US regulation | 🔞 Age limit | ⚽ Soccer prediction market features |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CFTC | 18+ | Versatile match prediction markets |
| Polymarket | CFTC | 18+ | Soccer trading volume |
| Crypto.com | CFTC | 18+ | User-friendly soccer event contract trading |
Kalshi was the first site and app to offer soccer prediction market trading to US users, and remains one of the most popular to this day. It’s regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and can therefore accept verified US residents aged 18+. However, it is outright banned or partially restricted in Arizona, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio.
When it comes to soccer predictions, Kalshi offers great tracking tools, a diverse market selection, and high trading volume. For individual matches, it is extremely flexible, as you have Yes/No outcomes for each match. For instance, you could buy “No” contracts to forecast against one team winning, rather than having to call the tie or the opposite victory specifically,
Additionally, there are “Team to advance” event contracts for knockout matches as well as 1×2 90-minute event contracts. Alongside these, you have player props and “Team to score first” predictions.
When it comes to purchasing contracts, the interface is user-friendly, and you can buy in shares or dollars. To protect yourself against slippage, you can place a limit order with a maximum price per contract and a time limit. The fees are based on expected profits and apply to both maker and taker trades.
After its international trading site was banned in the United States, Polymarket launched a US-exclusive app that’s headquartered in the US. The app is CFTC-regulated and accepts users aged 18+ who are legal US residents. However,. There are partial restrictions and outright bans in some states, so we advise checking the T&Cs before you sign up.
Polymarket has overtaken Kalshi as the most-used prediction market site in the US. As a result, the trading volume for soccer matches and other popular prediction markets is massive. For matches in flagship competitions, like the Premier League, Champions League and World Cup, total trading volume is always in the millions of dollars (USD).
If you look at soccer futures markets, like UCL or World Cup winners, it’s not unusual for the volume to exceed $1 billion. This soccer prediction market app also has a user-friendly interface, and the 1×2 prediction markets have one event contract option per result. Instead of Yes/NO for every option, you can pick from three event contracts: Home Win/Tie/Away Win.
Polymarket doesn’t charge any maker fees for soccer event contracts, and the taker fee is just $0.03 per contract. As a market maker, you can even be eligible for a rebate of up to 25%.
Crypto.com is best-known as a cryptocurrency trading and investment website. However, eligible US traders can now trade soccer and other prediction markets through its CFTC-regulated derivatives website and on its standalone OG app. You must be a US resident who’s over 18 to trade prediction markets.
That said, the site is outright banned if you’re in Arizona or New York. Additionally, soccer and other sports prediction markets are restricted for users in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois.
If you’re residing anywhere else in the US, you can trade soccer match predictions, futures forecasts and props on a very user-friendly platform. While it’s a bit more stripped back with a smaller market selection than Kalshi and Polymarket, it’s a far easier platform to use if you’re new to prediction market trading.
Another advantage that this site and app offer is a low trading fee structure. You pay an initial taker fee of $0.02 per contract when you make your purchase. However, this fee is waived as long as you don’t sell or hold the contracts until the match or soccer event has concluded. This applies whether your forecast was correct or not.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
The registration process is slightly different on each prediction market site, but the basic process remains the same. Moreover, all sites have the same minimum KYC and verification requirements according to the regulations of the CFTC.
To help you get through the process and know what to expect, we’ve put together this step-by-step guide:
Choose a site – Use our expert reviews to select the soccer prediction market site for you
Get started – Follow the relevant link on this page and open the signup form of the prediction market website
Download the app – Download and install the app if you wish to trade on mobile
Create your account – Enter your email address or sign up via Google, Apple ID, or one of the other options
Security and 2FA – Create a secure password and set up security questions and/or biometric login
Personal information – Provide your full legal name, residential address, date of birth, and SSN
KYC and verification – Upload your photo ID, a selfie, proof of address, and any other documents requested to fully verify your identity
Submit the form – Click the button to submit the form, and wait to get verified.
Fund your account – Deposit funds into your account using one of the available deposit methods.
Trade soccer predictions – Browse the selection of soccer prediction markets and purchase event contracts
Trading prediction markets for soccer and other sports is a risky activity that you should view as a speculative hobby, and certainly not as an investment strategy. To help you have a secure and enjoyable experience, here are our experts’ top five tips:
Deposit and trade a total amount that you can comfortably afford to lose, then set aside small portions of this total budget for each trade.
Only trade predictions on teams, leagues, and players that you follow and understand. Don’t buy event contracts for the Hungarian Second Division if you only follow the MLS and major European leagues.
Besides the obvious things like watching matches and studying stats, also use the tools on the prediction market sites to study the trading volume and market opinion. This can help you spot and exploit things like a market overreaction to an injury or a surprise team getting knocked out.
While you should trade on markets related to leagues and teams you follow, you have to leave emotion out of it. Don’t purchase a USMNT contract because you want them to win. Only do so if you logically think that they will.
Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket by allocating your total budget to event contracts for one outcome. As we said in our first tip, spread your total deposit across multiple trades.
To conclude, soccer prediction markets involve buying and selling event contracts that are tied to possible outcomes of a soccer match or future event. You can win money if you buy and hold contracts that correlate with a correct forecast, but you’ll lose money if your predictions are wrong.
As long as you have carefully considered and understand the risks, you can register at Kalashi, Polymarket, or Crypto.com directly via the banners on this page.
Soccer prediction markets are fairly simple, as you can buy or sell event contracts that are tied to the outcomes of a soccer match or other future event. If the outcomes tied to your event contracts happen, you’ll win money; if not, you will lose.
Kalshi and Polymarket are probably tied as the two best prediction markets for soccer. They both have a very diverse selection of soccer-related prediction markets, user-friendly platforms, and massive trading volume.
If your event contract is tied to an outcome that is correct, it will close at $1.00, and if not, it will close at $0.00. As the initial price of the contracts is always between $00.01 and $0.99, this means you get a profit if you are correct and a loss if you are incorrect.
Loading …
